Third and Doom*

*(The good kind of doom.)

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say something that is either so wildly obvious or so naively reductive that I will lose all credibility in the eyes of you, my reader.  Here goes anyway.

It's all about the third downs, man.

I've long held on to third down conversion numbers as a sort of "go to" stat; something that, when looked at in the context of all the other numbers is going to tell me how well or poorly the offense or defense performed.  There is variation, sure.  When you play Minnesota you might not see many third downs because your team is so successful on first and second.  On top of that, some defenses are more designed to "bend and not break" and will necessarily allow more third down conversions as teams move the ball.  And some teams     cough, Notre Dame, cough     may have a lot of success converting third downs against you, but are done in by turnovers of the back-breaking variety.

So yes, I know it isn't a perfect system, but when taken in the context of a game, third down conversion percentage for both offense and defense can paint a great picture of just how good a team played.  Consider the following:

• Would you have guessed that Michigan's worst loss of the year coincided with its worst day on third down in the Big Ten season? (Michigan State converted 7/14; Michigan converted 3/15; Woof.).
• Or that Michigan's three most dominant defensive performances in the Big Ten came on days allowing just 29% (Illinois), 23% (Purdue), and 0% (Minnesota).
• Or that Michigan's defensive third down rate is 40th in the nation right now (36%) while it was 95th last year (43%).  (Although the 2009 defense also posted a 37% allowed rate, good for 40th.  I say this for full disclosure.  I have no idea how that number is so good comparatively, but I do know that the numbers don't include just how crippling some of those allowed conversions were.  So, in that case I'd rather preempt you, dear reader, with evidence of my being an idiot, than have you point it out later).

All of this is going the long way around introducing what has been my favorite part of the 2011 Greg Mattison defensive revival: third down stops.

Over the past few days I have finally gotten around to reading Three and Out, and on Saturday I had a long discussion before the Illinois game began about the book with a friend who is just about as obsessed with the team as I am.  We argued about what the most disheartening loss of 2009 was (I said Illinois, he said Purdue), shared a laugh about the scene in the book where Brian Cook confronts Michael Rosenberg after the Freep-Jihad presser, complained about the lack of discussion of the Shafer -> Gerg transition, and both agreed that the 2008 Utah game might be the most inexplicable thing that happened during the entire Rich Rodriguez era.

Once the game began and the defense came out hot, we both shifted out attention to just how good this team has been on third down, especially third-and-short.  After just having read about a stomach churning third-and-24 conversion that I remember like it happened yesterday, it is strange to see the defense line up to stop a third-and-short conversion and know, I mean know in my soul, that the other team is going to be punting on the next play (or, if coached by Kirk Ferentz, break character and go for it on fourth down to infuriate me).



I mean, that right there is a thing of beauty.  This is what good defenses do.  They demoralize the opponent by refusing to budge even one inch when all the offensive player needs to do is simply fall forward to keep the offense on the field.

So when Illinois lined up in the first quarter in a third-and-one situation at its own 23-yard line, for the first time in years I waited, grinning at what I knew was to come because I had seen it before.  You don't get one yard on this defense without a fight.



It speaks to the job that Greg Mattison has done with this defense that I am more confident in a third-and-one stop that I am third-and-five or more.  Michigan still isn't perfect     no team is     but you can see every time that group steps on the field that the call is right, the effort is superb, and the assignments are carried out.  If another team gets two when it needs one, it isn't because the Wolverines beat themselves*.

More than all the other signs of hope for the future of this defense, from the quick development of freshman like Blake Countess, to the way young players like Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan fix mistakes from game to game to become better players, to the ever evolving series of blitz packages that are confusing the hell out of opposing quarterbacks, the thing that I have been most impressed with is that Mattison has delivered on his promise of the offseason: the team will work to stop the run.  Nothing is more central to that goal than lining up and stopping the other team when both you and they know exactly what is coming, and they dare you to make the play to stop it.

The offense may still be a bumbling mess tied to a  rocket powered cheetah, and Michigan's special teams play is going to haunt me for years like 'Nam haunts crazy old war vets     including fever dreams that are a series of rapid fire shots of Jeremy Gallon muffing punts     but for the first season in years, I can confidently say that the defense is in the right hands.

Now, about that shotgun formation...

*(Isn't always, I mean.  Typical freshman starters disclaimer applies.)

My Favorite Things: Purdue

After having a few days to put the Purdue game in the review mirror, I finally feel like I am ready to look back at it.  There isn't much you can take from a game like that.  The conditions were awful, Purdue has one of the most depleted and ineffective offenses in the country, and Michigan shifted into vanilla play calling once it became clear that the only way the Wolverines would lose would be if Michigan beat itself.

Plays like this certainly weren't setting the world on fire for the Boilermakers:

Fumbles.  Story of the day.

However, there were some solid performances delivered on both sides of the ball.  Lets take a quick look back at my favorite things so we can put this game behind us and move on to (hopefully) greener pastures in the form of two upset bids.

Grades from the First Third: Defense

Before the season began, when this blog was still in its infancy, I decided the best way to jump in to my Michigan football blogging career short of doing a full season preview would be to look at the best and worst case scenarios for each position group.  I called this series "Half full/Half empty" and I used it to lay out what I thought this season might have in store.

Don't get too comfortable with this defense yet,
lest something like this happen again.

Now that we have made it through the first third of the season, it is time to offer some initial reactions.  Since I have already used the gimmick of "Half full/Half empty" I am just going to stay with it   dance with the one that brought you and all.  I will provide links to the original posts in case you feel like reading them for a little background.

Naturally, disclaimers abound.  This is only my estimation of how each position group has done compared to my preseason hopes and fears.  While we have some answers, a lot more will become clear the further this team gets into the Big Ten season.  (Offense Part I, and Part II found here).

Let's start with the defense.

(One note for those unfamiliar with UFRs, I will rely heavily on this performance based recap of the game done at mgoblog.  Any discussion of player performance is incomplete without taking into account Brian's UFR data.)

My Favorite Things: Bowling Green

Some weeks this postgame recap almost writes itself.  In fact, the Wolverines pitched such a perfect game on Saturday that I am having a hard time limiting myself to just three favorite things.

Mike Hart/Chris Perry but fast, is that what you said Fred?  I'm not buying it.

The offense was on another plain of existence Saturday, only failing to score on two drives.  One of those drives ended with an unfortunate fumble by Stephen Hopkins.  The other drive was a turnover on downs that was preceded by not one but two beautiful touchdown passes   the "I can't believe I'm this open" drop by Junior Hemingway, and the great catch and run by Kelvin Grady on the seam route that was called back after a personal foul.  The defense also had a largely productive day, only allowing two sustained touchdown drives and a total of 283 yards while stifling the Falcon's rushing offense to a measly 1.2 ypc.  The 251 yards passing is a bit of a red flag, but take away the long tunnel screen touchdown (77 yards) that was aided by a hold on James Rogers, and the numbers are even more impressive, especially for a team that makes its living passing the ball.

This was the kind of game that most felt should have happened the previous week against UMass, and while that game still leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouth, it is great to see the Wolverines play vintage dominating football.  This Bowling Green team might not be great, but they are not the level of the baby seal that was clubbed last year for nearly the same ridiculous stats.  If there is anything to be concerned about from Saturday, it is that Denard Robinson doesn't need to take bone crushing hits to risk injury, but we all knew that already, even if we didn't want to admit it.  So lets jump right in to my favorite things.

Looking for a Silver Lining: UMass

A superior Michigan team took the field early on Saturday against an outmatched opponent.  Most figured the game was simply a tune up for more important games in the future.  A chance to rest starters and give younger back ups a few game time reps.  Michigan doesn't lose games like this.

The underdogs had other plans.  They shocked the favored Wolverines early, forcing turnovers and stealing an early lead.  Like a prizefighter who comes in complacent the home team was knocked on its heels, but soon stormed back to reclaim the halftime lead.  The Wolverines kept the foot on the gas pedal in the third, but a funny thing happened in the final quarter of play:  the underdogs wouldn't go away.  Capitalizing on defensive mistakes and a shift in momentum the game closed in to within one score late, and it looked like the unthinkable might happen.

My (Least) Favorite Things: Notre Dame

Things have been slow to develop around Dreaded Judgement over the last day or so.  A link from Brian at mgoblog on Monday that directed people to my post game reaction has run traffic around here to much higher levels than I ever could have imagined when I started out a few weeks ago.  On top of that, my postgame thoughts inspired a response from Dave over at Maize and Brew (a response that I understand better after this blog got some notoriety outside my close circle of friends).


I think the sum total of things I have written in my life haven't been read by this many people, so I have spent the last day or so in awe.  It feels great to get positive feedback and support from the Michigan football online community, not to mention blogging idols of mine like Brian and Dave.  But there is no time to rest on my laurels.  football season stops for no man.  Back to regularly scheduled programming.

--

When it came to this post I was initially unsure how to proceed.  I set out in this series to highlight the positives of each week's performance.  However, the positives from last Saturday's game would have unfolded like this.

1. Denard Robinson
2. Denard Freaking Robinson
3. Denard Freaking Robinson ripping Notre Dame's heart out in the last three minutes of another nail biter.

Pretty boring list, eh?  Besides, I think I have already summed up my feelings on Denard Robinson enough this week.  When it comes down to it we will learn much more from examining a few of the underwhelming aspects of Saturday's performance.  So without further ado, I present:  My (Least) Favorite Things.

The Match Up Rundown: Notre Dame

Let up begin looking forward to this week's game against the Fightin' Irish.  Today I will explore some key matchups that will play a big role in this weeks game.  One matchup will favor the Wolverines, the other will favor the Irish.  Whatever team has the most success winning these key battles will most likely win the game.

Conventional wisdom?  No thanks.

When you watch as much ESPN as I do on a daily basis you are either 1) unemployed or 2) masochistic.  Sportscenter is still great for a rundown of scores and highlights, and I'll never change the channel when PTI comes on, but overall the so called "experts" on the different ESPN shows tend to hang on cliches and hyperbole.  So I wasn't surprised today when Mel Kiper and Todd McShay decided to weigh in on players to watch during the Michigan vs. Notre Dame game this week.  I had already decided on writing this piece and figured that these two might have something interesting to add.

Then Mel Kiper made me reevaluate everything I was going to write.  His key player was Michael Floyd.

Here, I had spent the whole morning planning a piece on just how much damage Michael Floyd could do to this thin Michigan secondary.  He is unquestionably a first round caliber draft pick when he leaves school.  He absolutely toyed with sophomore Boubacar "Toast" Cissoko last year, hauling in seven receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown.

But, isn't that the point?  Floyd will have a productive day on the outside against a green secondary unit just like he did last year.  However, the soft coverage schemes and Dayne Crist's inability to be Jimmy Clausen should keep the production at around the same level as last year.  That kind of production I can live with.  After all, the outside receivers had a field day last year and Michigan still pulled out the win.  Which brings me to my first key matchup, the receiver we really need to be worried about this Saturday.

Key Possessions: UConn

One of the big keys to success this year is gaining momentum early in the game.  Against UConn on Saturday, the first possession by each team was dominated by Michigan.  This set the tone for the rest of the afternoon.  Let's take a look at just what happened:

• 14:55 - If there was ever a defensive play I was excited to see, it was this.  Three players all around the ball for the tackle and no gain on the pass out to the flat, added to the fact that Cam Gordon got sideline contain.  Follow this up with a TFL by Mouton on the next play, then a false start penalty, and finally heavy pressure on Frazer's third and long throw, and you have exactly the kind of stop the defense needed to make.  This more than anything set the tone for the game.  The UM defense that was supposed to come out and get pushed around by an experienced offensive unit played fast and aggressive.  They might make mistakes this year, but if they play with this much fire things should be just fine.
• 13:30 - Who is this team again?  The first two offensive plays are out of the I-form.  Who let Lloyd in the booth?  Both the run by Shaw and the hitch pass to Stonum look like vintage Carr plays.
• 12:31 - Denard takes the snap, fakes the handoff, and steps into a quick throwing stance, freezing the linebacker and opening a huge running lane.  Who else is excited to see the kind of openings in the defense that pump fakes will open up for Denard Robinson this year?
• 12:22 - And coming in for the only penalty of the day, Patrick Omameh, with an inexcusable late hit.  I like the enthusiasm, but Omameh has to be aware not only that the whistle was blown, but that Robinson was already down in front of him.  For this offense to be successful, linemen will have to constantly block down the field, and this team can't afford to have drives stalled by 15 yard penalties.
• 12:22 - The next play is perfect.  As diagrammed at Burgeoning Wolverine Star, this play is a 100% improvement in execution from last year, and one block away from six points.
• 11:17 - This play goes for positive yards, but looks to be improvised after blocking breaks down on the right side.  Shaw comes across the backfield, but then does a 180 and runs off Schilling's left hip.  My guess is that Dorrestein did not kick the DE out far enough and Shaw got cold feet.  It could be a designed counter (I'll wait for the offensive UFR at MGoBlog), but the cutback develops too slow to imagine this being very effective against solid linebackers.  However, if it is a broken play, it is nice to see a five yard gain, something we didn't see much of last year when the blocking broke down.
• 10:13 - 3rd and short.  Michael Shaw up the gut?  Excuse me while I flash back to Illinois '09.  Isn't this what we brought Stephen Hopkins in for?  No matter, as this is another 1st down.
• 9:21 - First, this is an excellent misdirection with the play action.  All the action goes left except for Robinson, Schilling, and Koger.  The LB's don't bite, but are caught watching long enough to give Robinson a head start.  The only man who can pick up the sack is the DE, and Schilling makes short work of him.  Koger finds an open spot below the safety and Robinson throws a strike.  This should be an offensive staple all year.
• 9:00 - This no gain is probably on Omameh.  He gets stood up by the DT who is able to keep his shoulders square to the play.  By the rest of the blocking   and the backside LB who eventually makes the tackle   I'll guess this run is supposed to go in the G/T gap.  If Omameh turns the DT inside it would seal off the LB coming in from the backside and allow Shaw to get to the second level.  After getting blown off the ball early on this drive and committing a penalty, the day hasn't started well for Omameh.
• 7:40 - This TD is all Vincent Smith.  UConn sends four players right to the spot on the line that Smith is trying to run through.  Schilling does a good job of staying between his man and the runner even after getting knocked down and turned around.  Smith then goes to work making people miss.  I don't think there is another running back on the team capable of turning this from a no gain to a TD.  Also, credit must be given to both Stonum and Roundtree (or was it Grady?), who neutralize the only players in the secondary capable of getting the stop after Smith makes it through the line.

So the first drive of the day for UConn goes for -9 yards.  Despite a booming punt that pushes Michigan back to its own four yard line, the offense rattles off a 14 play, 96 yard drive.  Denard Robinson completes two passes and runs for three 1st downs himself.  Even with a handful of mistakes this offense is still able to move the ball, only once losing yards (a one yard loss on the run by Shaw).  

All in all it was a great day for the offense.  Two scoring drives went for 96 yards, one went for 77 yards, one for 75, and the offense even capitalized on the shanked punt by taking the ball 38 yards for a TD.  To top it off, UConn was only given two meaningful possessions in the second half, and the defense did its job on both forcing a fumble and a turnover on downs.

Make no mistake though, the game turned ugly for UConn because of execution by both the offense and defense early.  A three and out for the defense followed by a long touchdown drive, and now the home team has all the momentum and confidence.  If this team can make a statement early in games this year it will go a long way toward making things easier on the defense while allowing the offense to worry about ball control and clock management rather than playing catch-up.

There are still quite a few questions swirling around this team, but we can all rest easier after Saturday knowing that the team is capable of establishing itself early.

Half Full or Half Empty? Defensive Line

Another installment in my season preview which looks at reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about the coming season.  Now that Secondary and Linebacker are out of the way things should be a little more cheery around here.


What's that, a position group on defense that we can actually be reasonably excited about this year?  You don't say.

Graham is leaving big shoes to fill.

If UM is going to win more than they lose in 2010   a novel idea I know   the defense is going to have to show a level of competency that has been absent the last two years.  The ability of the defense to do this is going to rise and fall with the ability of the defensive line to control the line of scrimmage and pressure the quarterback.  Even the most optimistic view of the linebacker and secondary performance this year still recognizes the obvious shortcomings that both units have.  There will be no coverage sacks this year, and unless Greg Jones gets lost on his way to Spartan Stadium on game days and somehow ends up in Ann Arbor, there is no knight in shining armor lining up five yards deep who is capable of neutralizing the talented group of running backs the Big Ten has to offer.  With great power comes great responsibility, and the defensive line is going to have to set the tone every game.

Just what we can expect is still somewhat of a mystery.

Half Full or Half Empty? Linebackers

My continuing attempt to look at reasons to feel good and bad about the upcoming season by position group.


If you look at last year's team on paper, one position group jumped out above all others as the strength of the defense.  The linebacking corp returned a two year starter at MLB in RS-junior Obi Ezeh and the previous year's starter at WLB in junior Jonas Mouton.  The two were joined by senior Stevie Brown in the new hybrid safety/linebacker position.  Brown was plagued by mistakes in his time at safety in the previous years and was unsuitable for the defensive backfield.  He was placed at what is now the Spur position as a stopgap.  If he turned in a solid campaign in '09, everyone would be relieved.

Jonas Mouton

But oh how the tables have turned.  Brown turned out to be the best LB of the bunch, leading the team in tackles leading to his going in the 7th round of the NFL draft.  Somehow, Ezeh continued to be on Mel Kiper's top five list (does he watch the games!?) after turning in another disappointing season that saw him get benched late in the season in favor of a 200 lbs. walk-on.  Mouton didn't fare much better, only retaining his weak hold on the starting job at WLB because JB Fitzgerald couldn't step up and take it from the under-performing junior.

What does the future have in store this year?

Half Full or Half Empty? Secondary

If you want a full fledged preview of this year's team, you are in the wrong place.  Your first stop should be MGoBlog or your local newsstand for a copy of this year's Hail To The Victors (also written by Brian from MGoBlog).

Hopefully the secondary isn't glass number 3.

Over here at Dreaded Judgement, we (the royal we of course, lets keep these Lebowski references going) like to deal more in abstract scenarios.  How could things turn out?  What should send the majority of the fan base scurrying under the nearest rock, and what possibilities are there for large scale improvement?

To answer these questions, I will try to look at each position group individually and give one reason for overjoyed optimism and one for suicide inducing pessimism.  This Half Full/Half Empty series will touch on all of the position groups by this Saturday, when we will start to get a real idea of where we stand.  With that said, lets start with the bad news...

The Secondary.