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| The star of the show. |
Showing posts with label Half full/Half empty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Half full/Half empty. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Grades from the First Third: Offense Part II
(Find Part I of the offensive grade here. Find the defensive grades here. On with the show.)
Grades from the First Third: Offense Part I
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| Let's look back on the offense so far, shall we gentlemen? |
The Offense. (One more reminder for those of you who missed yesterday's piece, my analysis relies on the UFR's done over at mgoblog. If you aren't familiar with these, I would suggest spending the rest of your afternoon at mgoblog. You can thank me afterward.)
Monday, September 27, 2010
Grades from the First Third: Defense
Before the season began, when this blog was still in its infancy, I decided the best way to jump in to my Michigan football blogging career short of doing a full season preview would be to look at the best and worst case scenarios for each position group. I called this series "Half full/Half empty" and I used it to lay out what I thought this season might have in store.
Now that we have made it through the first third of the season, it is time to offer some initial reactions. Since I have already used the gimmick of "Half full/Half empty" I am just going to stay with it dance with the one that brought you and all. I will provide links to the original posts in case you feel like reading them for a little background.
Naturally, disclaimers abound. This is only my estimation of how each position group has done compared to my preseason hopes and fears. While we have some answers, a lot more will become clear the further this team gets into the Big Ten season. (Offense Part I, and Part II found here).
Let's start with the defense.
(One note for those unfamiliar with UFRs, I will rely heavily on this performance based recap of the game done at mgoblog. Any discussion of player performance is incomplete without taking into account Brian's UFR data.)
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| Don't get too comfortable with this defense yet, lest something like this happen again. |
Naturally, disclaimers abound. This is only my estimation of how each position group has done compared to my preseason hopes and fears. While we have some answers, a lot more will become clear the further this team gets into the Big Ten season. (Offense Part I, and Part II found here).
Let's start with the defense.
(One note for those unfamiliar with UFRs, I will rely heavily on this performance based recap of the game done at mgoblog. Any discussion of player performance is incomplete without taking into account Brian's UFR data.)
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Half Full or Half Empty? Quarterback
The final entry in my series of best and worst case scenarios for the upcoming season. I would do one on special teams, but its pretty simple. Kicking and punting come down to freshman stepping up, and the return game, to paraphrase MGoBlog comes down do "HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL. Let's now look at the biggest x factor for the coming season, the quarterback position.
The story of the Michigan offense these last two years is largely a story of quarterback play or lack thereof (amirite?). 2008 was the worst offensive year any of us have ever seen because the options at quarterback were a walk-on and a pro style passer unfit to run the spread and shred. This is a reductive view that doesn't take in to account the worst offensive line of the last ten years, and two freshman running backs, but bare with me. 2009 was a year of promise and ultimately failure, on the backs of one quarterback who was tasked with too much pressure to carry an offense (losing your best option at RB and the heart of your offensive line at different points will do that), and another quarterback who had all of three weeks of formal training at the position before the season. The quarterbacks did the best they could with the injuries and inexperience that surrounded the team last year. Their best wasn't good enough.
This year is different. The offense returns almost wholly intact and deeper than before. The defense returns a lot of its contributors from last year and is finally nearing the point where there is a legitimate two deep at every position. Questions abound for this team as we enter the season, but none of them seem to matter as much as who takes the first snap this Saturday. This isn't a real question, since it is clear all three options at quarterback will play. That doesn't really matter, because if there is one thing the media loves more than Brent Favre's annual retirement fiasco, it is a full fledged quarterback controversy.
So we return to the question that launched the discussion of running backs: If you have two quarterbacks, do you indeed have none?
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| The two-headed monster. I still have nightmares about 2008. |
This year is different. The offense returns almost wholly intact and deeper than before. The defense returns a lot of its contributors from last year and is finally nearing the point where there is a legitimate two deep at every position. Questions abound for this team as we enter the season, but none of them seem to matter as much as who takes the first snap this Saturday. This isn't a real question, since it is clear all three options at quarterback will play. That doesn't really matter, because if there is one thing the media loves more than Brent Favre's annual retirement fiasco, it is a full fledged quarterback controversy.
So we return to the question that launched the discussion of running backs: If you have two quarterbacks, do you indeed have none?
Half Full or Half Empty? Running Backs
There is a hurricane rolling in to Virginia Beach tonight, so posts will be coming hard and fast today and most likely not at all tomorrow. Let's move on to the biggest unknown question in the running game.
The old adage goes, "if you have two quarterbacks, you have none." What about two running backs? What about three? Four?
The running back position in the spread and shred offense seems to be overlooked sometimes. When people look back on Rodriguez's tenure at West Virginia the first name that gets mentioned is always Pat White. But the quarterback position will only account for somewhere around 40% of the rushing attempts in a given year. The Pat Whites of the world may run the show, but it is the guys like Steve Slaton and Noel Divine that carry the bulk of the workload.
The past two years, the running back position in Ann Arbor has been in a state of constant flux. Sam McGuffie was thrust into playing time early in his true freshman year of '08 (probably costing him his health and driving him back to Texas), but neither he nor Michael Shaw found much success on the ground, paving the way for Brandon Minor to take a bigger role in the offense. After a solid end to the '08 campaign, Minor and speedster Carlos Brown looked to be the one two punch that UM's breakout offense would need in '09. However, injuries took a toll and turned the running back position into a game of musical chairs.
Going in to this season the oft injured Minor and the sporadic play maker Brown have both graduated and taken with them the last remnants of Lloyd Carr's stable of running backs. Stepping in to fill the void are a number of running backs who have different levels of experience. Shaw, a junior, and Vincent Smith, a freshman, are both back in the fold having a few starts a piece, but both have been inconsistent. Joining them are three largely unknown newcomers. Michael Cox the alleged super athlete saw garbage time last year. Fitzgerald Toussaint is the owner of not only a fantastic name but an equally impressive load of hype generated by highlight tapes and scout team buzz from last year. Last but not least is Stephen Hopkins, the early-enrolling freshman who has established himself as the battering ram of the bunch.
Can we get reasonable production out of a group of unproven running backs?
The old adage goes, "if you have two quarterbacks, you have none." What about two running backs? What about three? Four?
The running back position in the spread and shred offense seems to be overlooked sometimes. When people look back on Rodriguez's tenure at West Virginia the first name that gets mentioned is always Pat White. But the quarterback position will only account for somewhere around 40% of the rushing attempts in a given year. The Pat Whites of the world may run the show, but it is the guys like Steve Slaton and Noel Divine that carry the bulk of the workload.
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| From fumble prone to MINOR RAGE! Can this year's running back corp take the next step? |
Going in to this season the oft injured Minor and the sporadic play maker Brown have both graduated and taken with them the last remnants of Lloyd Carr's stable of running backs. Stepping in to fill the void are a number of running backs who have different levels of experience. Shaw, a junior, and Vincent Smith, a freshman, are both back in the fold having a few starts a piece, but both have been inconsistent. Joining them are three largely unknown newcomers. Michael Cox the alleged super athlete saw garbage time last year. Fitzgerald Toussaint is the owner of not only a fantastic name but an equally impressive load of hype generated by highlight tapes and scout team buzz from last year. Last but not least is Stephen Hopkins, the early-enrolling freshman who has established himself as the battering ram of the bunch.
Can we get reasonable production out of a group of unproven running backs?
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Half Full or Half Empty? Receivers
Moving outside for a look at the one position group that has largely failed to be relevant (for a variety of reasons not limited to skill level) in the last two years.
Gone are the days of Braylon Edwards, David Terrell, and Mario Manningham. This much is certain. UM won't be seeing any Navarre-esque pro style quarterbacks slinging fade routes 50 yards down the field. What does this mean for the passing game moving forward?
Looking back, we don't have too much to see. '08 was a lean year at receiver as the two best options decided to try their luck in the draft following the '07 season. Martavious Odoms led the team from the slot, but the production on the outside was lacking. Last year, despite 2000 yards from freshman Tate Forcier, the passing game failed to be the kind of factor in the offense that it is capable of.
Believe that Rodriguez coached teams won't air it out at your own peril. Each QB brings a skill to the table that should open up passing lanes, while the offensive line looks to be better suited to provide pass protection. If there was ever a year for the receivers to take the next step, 2010 is it.
Gone are the days of Braylon Edwards, David Terrell, and Mario Manningham. This much is certain. UM won't be seeing any Navarre-esque pro style quarterbacks slinging fade routes 50 yards down the field. What does this mean for the passing game moving forward?
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| More of this, please. |
Believe that Rodriguez coached teams won't air it out at your own peril. Each QB brings a skill to the table that should open up passing lanes, while the offensive line looks to be better suited to provide pass protection. If there was ever a year for the receivers to take the next step, 2010 is it.
Half Full or Half Empty? Offensive Line
Moving to the other side of the ball today to discuss the world of possibilities that lie ahead of this offense in year three of the Rodriguez spread experiment.
Most of the blame for UM's poor performance in '08 fell on the shoulders of the two-headed monster at quarterback. Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet certainly played awful under center that year, but the offensive line was so bad that a converted DT switched to offensive guard and won the starting position. Youth won the day, and the worst offensive performance any UM fan can remember was well on its way to the record books.
2009 was a year of hope. The quarterback situation finally looked to have steadied under the hand of true-freshman Tate Forcier (that last statement is a testament to just how bad the Threet/Sheridan combo was) and the offense was poised to make the same jump that Rodriguez coached offenses had done in the past. Things looked promising until center David Molk went down with a broken foot three games in, only to return for a single (7 yard run) play against Penn State before tearing his ACL. The line struggled for a second year and subsequently so did the offense.
There are no more excuses. The youth of '08 is gone, and the line is working with a legitimate two-deep unlike in '09 when the Molk injury caused massive restructuring. The sky is the limit for this group, but where is the floor?
Most of the blame for UM's poor performance in '08 fell on the shoulders of the two-headed monster at quarterback. Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet certainly played awful under center that year, but the offensive line was so bad that a converted DT switched to offensive guard and won the starting position. Youth won the day, and the worst offensive performance any UM fan can remember was well on its way to the record books.
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| And so went the 2009 season. |
There are no more excuses. The youth of '08 is gone, and the line is working with a legitimate two-deep unlike in '09 when the Molk injury caused massive restructuring. The sky is the limit for this group, but where is the floor?
Half Full or Half Empty? Defensive Line
Another installment in my season preview which looks at reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about the coming season. Now that Secondary and Linebacker are out of the way things should be a little more cheery around here.
What's that, a position group on defense that we can actually be reasonably excited about this year? You don't say.
If UM is going to win more than they lose in 2010 a novel idea I know the defense is going to have to show a level of competency that has been absent the last two years. The ability of the defense to do this is going to rise and fall with the ability of the defensive line to control the line of scrimmage and pressure the quarterback. Even the most optimistic view of the linebacker and secondary performance this year still recognizes the obvious shortcomings that both units have. There will be no coverage sacks this year, and unless Greg Jones gets lost on his way to Spartan Stadium on game days and somehow ends up in Ann Arbor, there is no knight in shining armor lining up five yards deep who is capable of neutralizing the talented group of running backs the Big Ten has to offer. With great power comes great responsibility, and the defensive line is going to have to set the tone every game.
Just what we can expect is still somewhat of a mystery.
What's that, a position group on defense that we can actually be reasonably excited about this year? You don't say.
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| Graham is leaving big shoes to fill. |
Just what we can expect is still somewhat of a mystery.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Half Full or Half Empty? Linebackers
My continuing attempt to look at reasons to feel good and bad about the upcoming season by position group.
If you look at last year's team on paper, one position group jumped out above all others as the strength of the defense. The linebacking corp returned a two year starter at MLB in RS-junior Obi Ezeh and the previous year's starter at WLB in junior Jonas Mouton. The two were joined by senior Stevie Brown in the new hybrid safety/linebacker position. Brown was plagued by mistakes in his time at safety in the previous years and was unsuitable for the defensive backfield. He was placed at what is now the Spur position as a stopgap. If he turned in a solid campaign in '09, everyone would be relieved.
But oh how the tables have turned. Brown turned out to be the best LB of the bunch, leading the team in tackles leading to his going in the 7th round of the NFL draft. Somehow, Ezeh continued to be on Mel Kiper's top five list (does he watch the games!?) after turning in another disappointing season that saw him get benched late in the season in favor of a 200 lbs. walk-on. Mouton didn't fare much better, only retaining his weak hold on the starting job at WLB because JB Fitzgerald couldn't step up and take it from the under-performing junior.
What does the future have in store this year?
If you look at last year's team on paper, one position group jumped out above all others as the strength of the defense. The linebacking corp returned a two year starter at MLB in RS-junior Obi Ezeh and the previous year's starter at WLB in junior Jonas Mouton. The two were joined by senior Stevie Brown in the new hybrid safety/linebacker position. Brown was plagued by mistakes in his time at safety in the previous years and was unsuitable for the defensive backfield. He was placed at what is now the Spur position as a stopgap. If he turned in a solid campaign in '09, everyone would be relieved.
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| Jonas Mouton |
What does the future have in store this year?
Half Full or Half Empty? Secondary
If you want a full fledged preview of this year's team, you are in the wrong place. Your first stop should be MGoBlog or your local newsstand for a copy of this year's Hail To The Victors (also written by Brian from MGoBlog).
Over here at Dreaded Judgement, we (the royal we of course, lets keep these Lebowski references going) like to deal more in abstract scenarios. How could things turn out? What should send the majority of the fan base scurrying under the nearest rock, and what possibilities are there for large scale improvement?
To answer these questions, I will try to look at each position group individually and give one reason for overjoyed optimism and one for suicide inducing pessimism. This Half Full/Half Empty series will touch on all of the position groups by this Saturday, when we will start to get a real idea of where we stand. With that said, lets start with the bad news...
The Secondary.
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| Hopefully the secondary isn't glass number 3. |
To answer these questions, I will try to look at each position group individually and give one reason for overjoyed optimism and one for suicide inducing pessimism. This Half Full/Half Empty series will touch on all of the position groups by this Saturday, when we will start to get a real idea of where we stand. With that said, lets start with the bad news...
The Secondary.
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