Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

I usually watch Michigan games alone.  It has been that way since I graduated college and left the communal atmosphere that makes one feel a part of the school and the games.  Being an alumni just isn't the same.  The love is there, but the camaraderie is missing.

Of course, the last few years didn't help that much.  I spent 2007 as a holdout in one final semester, most of my friends graduated and moving on with their lives, me clinging to my student tickets and the only thing that ever made sense to me: going to school.  The next two years I lived in East Lansing with a house full of MSU fans, who, while generally rational, enjoyed watching my in-game nervous twitching, tantrums, and manic depressive behavior too much for my comfort.  I spent many Saturdays in my room alone.  Last year was my first away from the Midwest, and living with a friend who couldn't have cared less about college football in any form, it was easy to find solitude in which to watch games.

In any case, the last four years of Michigan football, combined with my already nervous disposition, have driven me away from football as a communal experience.  I've become a college football hermit.

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This year things are a little different.  I have more friends in the area, one of them a good college friend and one of only two people outside of my father who I go to to talk Michigan football.

I also don't have the Big Ten Network at home.  This has driven me find places outside the comfort of my house to watch games     something I'm not entirely comfortable with.  It has also driven me to sports bars more often than I would have liked.  Most games so far this year this  have been fine.  I watched the EMU game in an empty bar in Mio Michigan, I watched the SDSU game early in the afternoon in a half empty Buffalo Wild Wings that was just quiet enough for me to worry out loud and crack jokes to the others at my table, and I watched the Minnesota game at a friend's apartment as he got ready to watch the MSU game at 3:30.  All three cases were low stress.  Games were never in doubt, and I never had cause to flip out*.

Saturday night for the Northwestern game a few of us decided to go back to BWW.  I got there early and found a table right under a screen already tuned to the Big Ten network.  The Virginia Tech game was in the final minute (living in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, this is overwhelmingly the favorite team despite the a heavy military presence) and the whole place had a great college football buzz, different cheers erupting from corners of the bar, everyone closely following a game, and occasionally the majority of the place hooting and hollering at the game in Blacksburg.

Then the Tech game ended and the crowd started to thin out just as my blood pressure was rising.  The beginning of the Michigan game quickly went from ideal to, well, less than ideal.  You already know that part.

As the second quarter started the mood in the bar changed.  It was a UFC fight night, and slowly the place started to fill up with people waiting for the fight.  Pretty soon our TV got changed one of the under card fights and we had to track down the nearest manager to get BTN back, but not without hearing that no matter what, at nine o'clock the big screens were all going to be turned to the fight, and we would have to make due with a smaller TV tucked away  in a corner somewhere.  Over the noise of the patrons was the juke box playing just about everything I don't want to hear during a Michigan game with the exception of In The Big House     thank god for small miracles.

I don't know what your thoughts, dear reader, are on MMA fighting.  Whether you fancy it the sport of gentlemanly combat between well-trained chiseled Adonises, or a brutal Romanesque spectacle that excites only the basest instincts of meat heads and forearm tattoo enthusiasts** is immaterial.  What is most egregious in this writer's mind is the fact that on a football Saturday, with a handful of great college games available, the sports bar's main interest was showing an MMA fight.  Don't even get me started on the fact that the ALCS was shown on one TV, tucked away almost directly behind a large pillar***.

The crowd and the noise and the infuriating string of interceptions was too much, and by the time Pat Fitzgerald was lobbying for two seconds to be put back on the clock     all the while I couldn't tell what the hell was happening     I made up my mind.  The prospect of watching the second half of Michigan's return-to-earth game in a packed bar cheering for blood was too much.  I called a friend that I knew had BTN, asked if we could head over, and by the midpoint of halftime we had paid our bills and left.

*(Contrast this to the Notre Dame game, which I watched alone in my room in a depressed funk, then state of charged ecstasy.)

**(Seriously, I'm usually not one to stereotype, but by the fourth person who walked past in an Affliction t-shirt with some ridiculous forearm tattoo, I knew something was up and the congenial college football atmosphere had taken a turn for the worst.)


***(Like watching a game at old Tiger Stadium.  Am I right, folks?  Am I right?  I'll be here all night.)

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I guess where I am going with all of this has less to do with the external environment of watching football than the things going on in my head (although to be fair, I am never going to watch a Michigan game in BWW again as a matter of principle.  Your boneless wings may be tasty and your large glasses of beer cheap, but you insistence on deifying MMA fighting is an outrage, but I digress).

I guess I have been spoiled as a fan.  I have for the most part stayed away from sports bars, avoided hostile fan bases (never once going to see Michigan play an away game other that the '07 Rose Bowl, which don't get me started on that), and been able to crawl inside a cocoon of self loathing and defeatist cries at every wrong turn.

Are other people miserable to watch Michigan football around, or is it me?  I'm afraid to answer that.
This game was no different.  I like to joke that the repeated blows of the last few years have hardened me to the failures of my alma mater, that I have become numb to incompetence and defeat.  This is a lie I tell myself so I feel better during all those hours I'm not actively freaking out about Michigan football.  I'm not numb to defeat, I find defeat in everything and constantly expect the worst.

This game was no different.  I spent the entire first half miserable about the failure of Denard Robinson to throw to his receivers, the failure of the defense to stop the Northwestern speed option, and the failure of Al Borges to stop calling The Most Surprising Waggle In History.

I wonder if this is it.  If I have been broken.  Have I wound myself too tightly in the success and failure of this team?  Do I not give the coaching staff enough credit when it comes to subtle in game adjustments and fixing player mistakes during the game?  Will every October bring a feeling of impending doom, as if it is only a matter of time before the other shoe falls and I end up pouring over recruiting rankings and repeating, "next year, next year" to myself like a crazy person?

I don't know the answer, but I certainly hope not.  This game is too much fun to take too seriously, and the players on the field work too hard to judge on the basis of wins and losses.  I would still think the world of Denard Robinson if he threw three more interceptions in the second half.  It would still be an honor to have Jordan Kovacs on the team even if he kept missing tackles on the option that led to touchdowns.

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I know the cosmos doesn't care how I watch football and whatever higher power is up there has more important things to worry about than some neurotic 26 year old fan getting too worked up over things he can't control.  But it still feels like this season so far has been about healing the fan base.  Slow first halves give way to strong finishes.  Early mistakes are corrected during the game.  The impending October collapse is shaken off as Denard Robinson settles himself in the pocket and leads the team to four touchdowns on five drives in the second half.

I have no illusions of this team going undefeated.  It could very well lose next week to Michigan State.  But I am starting to get more comfortable with the idea that sometimes a loss is just a loss, and not a sign that the universe is unraveling at the seams.

But don't ask me my thoughts on that next Saturday.

Baby steps.

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Now, what you are really here for: actual football talk.

Bullets:

• I don't know if I have ever seen an athlete capable of a greater range of play than Denard Robinson.  Between everything that happened last year, and the two comebacks this year, we have seen Denard at his absolute best, absolute worst, and everything in between.  This time we must make no excuses. Denard was just flat out bad in the first half Saturday.  Some interceptions are great plays (look at the INT Nebraska had against OSU late in their game), some interceptions are lucky bounces (Brandin Hawthorne nods knowingly), and some are just putrid throws that are completely inexcusable.
• That being said, Denard was pretty friggin' awesome in the second half.  He looked like a new quarterback.  He was patient in the pocket and on target with his throws.  If we get that Denard the rest of the season we win every game.  We won't get that Denard the entire rest of the season.  It has become a matter of how long he shows up.  Some games we don't need him (EMU, SDSU), some games we only need him for a quarter (ND, WMU), and some games more like a half (NU).  You can bet we will need three quarters of Good Denard if we want to beat Michigan State this weekend and Nebraska/Illinois/OSU in the future.
• The running backs were quiet, but one thing I really enjoyed was seeing Michael Shaw get a chance to play.  It grew increasingly obvious that the only way we would pick up yards on NU was to get the ball outside the tackles     a Mike Shaw specialty.  I still like the Fitz/Vince one two punch, but it is nice to know we can go to the well and change up the strategy if need be.  Shaw only finished with 25 yards, but he did it on just six carries (4.2 ypc) and got a touchdown out of it.
• Junior Hemingway was back in a big way, and goddamn can that man high-point a ball.  Any other receiver and I would call that first jump ball a product of luck (I'm looking at you Roy Roundtree, and also the CB that didn't turn around to see the ball almost hit him in the helmet), but with Junior the jump ball is more of an art.  In basketball some guys just know how to rebound; they understand innately how to get position under the basket, what angle to expect the ball to carom off the rim at, and when to jump.  Junior is exceptionally good at doing this on the football field.  I bet he is one helluva IM basketball player.
• I would like to kindly ask Al Borges to stop running The Most Surprising Waggle In History, but I'll be damned if the thing didn't work a couple times.  Sure, Denard's first throw was inches away from being of the hair-pulling variety, but the offense converted a couple times.  Still, it is pretty bad when I can announce every I-form tight play as The Most Surprising Waggle In History to the room and be right 90% of the time.  Who wants to bet Michigan State isn't fooled.
• Taylor Lewan, you got lucky on this one.  Savor it, because it isn't happening again.
• I hoped the offense would do a bit better than 3.6 ypc against Northwestern, but I will chalk that up to the Wildcats being a stout run defense team, and not our offense being ineffective running the ball with anyone but Denard in games against anyone but Minnesota.  We will know for sure next week.  Michigan State has a pretty damn good front seven.
• Speaking of pretty damn good front sevens, I liked the way the defensive line and linebackers got after Persa and the Northwestern running game.  It is important to keep in mind the injuries to Mike Trumpy and Dan Persa (who wasn't 100%), but I thought NU did a great job integrating Kain Colter into the game plan, and the defensive line did a great job disrupting things once it got its footing.
• Other than the speed option.  This is troubling, especially because the two toughest opponents left after Michigan State are all teams that can and will spread the field and look to exploit defensive breakdowns with quick option plays.  Persa picking apart the defense through the air was one thing, but the fact that the speed option picked up yards nearly every time*.  Also, the tackling on the speed option looked 2010-esque.  Even Kovacs whiffed on one tackle, leading to a touchdown.  By far the worst aspect of the defense all day.  This same rant could be used to bemoan being bubble screened to death, but Mattison did a good job covering the slot in the second half and slowing that down.
• Other than that missed tackle, Kovacs had another good day, and Thomas Gordon was good as well, especially on his strip and fumble recovery.  Two good safeties?  Something about that just doesn't seem fair.  I didn't know teams could do that.
• Blake Countess.  Yeah, I know he got beat by a step on the long pass in the second quarter, but other than that he looks very solid out there.  I am excited to see how this develops.
• Big Will Campbell also had a nice sack late.  I haven't watched the entire game replay yet to try and pinpoint his contribution (trying to play the 5GB torrent I downloaded was pretty much akin to pouring molasses on my two-year-old laptop) but rumblings from around the blogosphere are positive.  (Insert burned red shirt rant)
• It was nice to see the defense as a whole step up so much in the second half after allowing 24 points and looking almost completely helpless in the first half.
• One last note: 14/17 on third down.  I was shocked when I read that stat on Sunday.  It really puts Denard's interceptions into perspective.  If he wasn't stopping the offense, nothing else was on Saturday.  One of the best third down percentages I can remember against a team with a pulse.

*(The one time it didn't: fourth and one.  However, this was a speed option run to the short side of the field with a visibly slowed Dan Persa instead of Kain Colter.  The Michigan defense blew the play up, but the play call did not put NU in a position to succeed.)

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Last week I said we couldn't learn anything at all from the Minnesota game.  This week I'm still not sure what we can take away specifically about the offense or defense.

However, the one thing I did learn is that it will be hard to count this team out with all the play makers on it.  Now that there is a coaching staff that's adjustments are more than switching stuffed animals at halftime, this team can finally start growing into something better week by week.

I'll probably still be a nervous wreck, though.

Don't Let the Lights Get In Your Eyes

In the hours after the game Saturday night I wandered around my house with a stupid grin on my face, half drunk and not really sure what to think.

My roommates threw a birthday party for one of our friends that evening during the game.  My contact with the party consisted of disgruntled trips to the keg during timeouts in which I would try to avoid any and all contact with others, and a few occasions where one or more of my friends would come into my room and check on me.  It is good to know that my mental state during Michigan games is so out of whack that those closest to me feel the need to monitor my well being.

Yet as I walked around after the game the party had largely died down to a few smaller groups of people talking or half playing some drinking game.  The couches were taken up by a few people who went too hard too fast, and the keg was still circled by those that had yet to squeeze all they could from it.

People casually asked me about the game.  My answer was always the same: a rush of emotions would ride in on the first words and pretty soon I was just spewing up an unintelligible series of exasperated praises and foreboding signs of impending doom.

"Denard was soooo bad in the beginning, but that fourth quarter, oh man, and those fades, they were just, how did he throw that with that guy there?"

"Ugh, the defense.  Got pushed around all night, no pressure.  But the turnovers.  And, yeah, Floyd and Wood did whatever they wanted.  But the turnovers!"

"Hemingway.  HEMINGWAY!"

It is a day and a half later and I still don't feel any different when I think about the game.  I watched the highlights a few times Saturday night, then a few times Sunday night as well.  It still doesn't feel real.  Bullets?

• It has been interesting to see the internet reaction on the subject of Denard's first three quarters.  I will admit that I haven't been the most consistent in my thinking.  During the game it was along the lines of, "Oh noes, Gardner?  Too soon?" but after the game it was simply standard fare doom and gloom about how the offense is never going to do anything again and the fourth quarter was an anomaly that only proves that God really doesn't like Notre Dame that much      or if she does, it is in a very Job-like way where dragging an entire fan base through the equivalent of football hell is supposed to be an endearing test of character.  (Yes, Notre Dame fans, God is a woman, and she wants to see how much you love her.  How much do you love her?)  As it stands now I think the offense is just very limited.  If teams stack the box and force Denard to pass, things will be shaky.  Everyone knows he is capable of making plays down field with his arm; he has made plenty of them over the past year.  The problem is that everyone knows he isn't yet capable of making those plays consistently.  Now, if he makes a good read and pass somewhere around two-thirds of the time or more (like the 4th quarter) this offense can still be very good. If he can't even do it a tenth of the time (like the first three quarters) the offense is going to end up just north of 2008 depths.  Obviously the answer lies somewhere in between.  Just where lies in the hands of Al Borges, who is going to have to adjust his game plan based on what he saw.  No more waggles out of I-Form or straight dive plays out of two back sets.  More zone-read and Denard head fakes.  This offense needs to be more shotgun based, and needs to at least keep the option of Denard running viable on every play so that defenses have to account for more possible outcomes and play tenative.  
• However, the problem of the offense doesn't just fall on the shoulders of Borges.  Denard was just plain bad at throwing the ball for the majority of the game.  He completed only four passes over the first three quarters, of those there were:  1. A five yard pass to Smith on a 3rd and 7 that was obviously Mike DeBord hacking in to the offenses' headset for one more disappointing third down playcall; 2. The Hemingway touchdown that was all Hemingway going up to get an under thrown fade; 3. An 11 yard pass to Kevin Koger over the middle on a good move to step forward out of the collapsing pocket; 4. The 77 yard crossing route that Robinson threw with his feet wrapped up by a ND defender.  For the record that is one meaningless check down, one unspectacular pass turned into a spectacular touchdown by the receiver, a savvy pass to Koger to get a third down conversion, and a nine out of ten difficulty throw to Hemingway (this is a ten out of ten).  Four for 15 in the first three quarters, and of those throws, only two were really properly placed.  The other eleven passes were incomplete or intercepted.  Robinson looked shaky with ball placement in week one, and sure enough when the pass defense was ratcheted up a notch this week he found it even harder to hit receivers in ever tightening windows.  If he can't settle down over the next month and improve his accuracy this offense is going to be much too easy to stop.
• There is still no running back.  I didn't know Toussaint was injured for the game (I was constantly talking to no one in particular as I sat by myself asking, "where the hell is Fitz?"  It would have been nice to see if he could have found any success where the other backs failed.  After last year and his performance last weekend, I am about ready to close the book on Stephen Hopkins as a viable #1 running back.  He can be a very good blocker, and will have some use as a big back if he controls his fumble problem, but otherwise the offense needs to be put in someone else's hands.  Is the answer Shaw?  Who knows.  He certainly didn't look very good on his two carries.  Unfortunately, it seems clear that no matter how much Borges and Hoke want it the other way, Denard is still our only effective running back and will need to be deployed accordingly.  More shotgun please.
• The offensive line looked overwhelmed at first glance.  I don't know how they will grade out upon closer inspection, but there weren't many holes to run through.  Robinson had a few big runs, but the backs were completely bottled up.  Denard did have plenty of time to throw, but I think that was part of Notre Dame's strategy (Pressure with four and make him throw over top of linebackers.  It worked).  This week's UFR will be an interesting read.  I can't imagine our O-line does anything more than break even.
• The lone bright spot outside of "Denard-fourth-quarter-whaaaaa-mode"?  The receivers.  Hemingway was spectacular on all three of his catches, and he has clearly staked claim as the big play receiver on this team.  Also, while I was ready to see Jeremy Gallon's role increase this year, I did not imagine it would be so pronounced.  The touchdown that he caught was on a great adjustment by him to get back to the ball before the defender could react, and getting free on the final drive to run the Wolverines into scoring position was arguably the play of the game as Michigan has no chance of going for the win if it doesn't get into the red zone there and set up a reasonable throw to the end zone.  Also, nice to see Roundtree not need to get warmed up for the game winner.  For a player with a history of drops it is nice to see him make such a great catch in a big moment.
• The defensive line was the most disappointing part of the defense for me.  Rees never really saw pressure, and Notre Dame never really had trouble picking up yards on the ground.  There were a few key TFL's and stuffs on short run plays, but that infuriating draw play that Wood ran six or eight times for almost ten yards a pop was troubling to see.  Mike Martin and RVB have been solid so far, but they need to be transcendent to make up for the help they aren't getting.  Craig Roh is all but absent when he needs to be a game changer off the weak side edge, and the walk-on duo of Heininger and Brink has been barely noticeable .  This unit really needs to come together in the next three weeks.  It was nice to see BWC make a couple big plays.  Any contribution he makes at this point will help immensely with the lack of quality depth on the line.
• The linebackers seemed to be effective, but a second glance at that should help me better make up my mind.  It is nice to see Brandin Hawthorne step up at WLB.  It would be nice to finally find a permanent starter for the position.
• Together, the front seven did stuff Notre Dame on three third-and-short rushing attempts late in the game.  The defense may bleed yards, but these are the kind of clutch plays that make up for it.
• I'm not sure what to think of the way the secondary played.  Michael Floyd got half ND's yards, but no touchdowns.  JT Floyd got beat a couple times, but probably made a good decision latching on to Floyd on what would have almost surely been a TD, and, hey, an INT for your troubles.  Kovacs is Kovacs, and that has lost all pejorative "walk-on-ish" connotation and just means: Kovacs is good at what he does and we should want more of it.  Avery is still just an undersized sophomore, and sometimes plays like it.  Woolfolk needs to stay healthy already.
• Special Teams = no crippling mistakes = A+.
• I shouldn't shortchange the special teams just to be snarky about the last two years.  Matt Wile did a very admirable job filling in on punting duties.  The coverage teams made a few good plays to drop Irish returners for a loss.  Gallon had a big punt return in the fourth quarter to set up the first go-ahead touchdown.  And last but not least: we didn't miss a single extra point.  It's the little things, everybody.

Overall, Michigan's performance was a perplexing mix of incredible plays pulled from a grab bag of defensive breakdowns and poor offensive execution, that is hard to put into perspective given the obvious question: how good is Notre Dame anyway and how much did the team beat itself?

The answer to the first question, I think, is simple.  This Irish team is long on talent and coaching, short on execution.  The Irish have put up two straight 500 yard games on play averages of around five yards per rush and eight per pass.  Michael Floyd is obviously a huge load at receiver, and so far Rees has shown the ability to air it out to receivers for touchdowns (five).  Cierre Wood has two 100 yard games so far and two touchdowns, and the offensive line is big and experienced.  But these big yardage totals don't amount to much because turnovers halted promising drives and set both Irish opponents up for scores.

Is this a top-10 offense?  No, but it is capable of moving the ball on most defenses with the weapons it has, and should be able to get this team to eight-ish wins if it's propensity for turning the ball over is curbed to reasonable levels.

The defense is much trickier to figure out.  It stoned USF, but USF isn't a good offensive that was protecting a huge lead for a big portion of the game, and once the Irish made it close USF was able to quickly score again to re-extend the lead.  Then the Irish defense shut down the Michigan offense for three quarters only to switch to full on panic made and give up four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  Real answers come next week when Notre Dame faces an offense that won't spend three quarters self-immolating before waking up and jamming a games worth of offensive execution into 17 minutes of game time.  The Spartans are deep and balanced at the skill positions and should be a should present quite a challenge to the Irish defense.

So did the Irish beat themselves?  The defensive collapse didn't help much, but some of that credit goes to the Herculean effort of Denard Robinson to get his team back in the game after a sloppy first three quarters. The bigger Irish implosion was once again turnovers.  Consider:

• Second Quarter: Rees intercepted after zoning in on Michael Floyd and losing track of Kovacs dropping into a zone beneath Floyd.  Two plays later Hemingway proclaims "your touchdowns are now touchdowns," and the Wolverines get their first score.
• Second Quarter: Rees intercepted on the goal line, again locking on to Floyd and trying to squeeze the ball in between three defenders, one of whom picks it off.  Deprives ND of a back breaking 24-7 lead in the first half.
• Fourth Quarter: Rees fumble on Michigan seven yard line.  The ball slipped out of his hand while he was preparing to throw.  Michigan doesn't turn this into points, but the Irish give up at least three points and probably seven.

Of the three Irish turnovers listed (there were five in the game) one of them set up a Wolverine touchdown and two removed a chance in or near the red zone      a three score swing away from the Irish.  More frustrating for Irish fans is that these were not great plays by the defense.  Rees' three turnovers are two interceptions where he zoned in on Michael Floyd and didn't notice an underneath defender, and a fluky fumble during a throw in the red zone.  These are all things that can and will improve as Rees gains confidence.  If the Irish are still turning the ball over like this in week eight then either Lane Kiffin has a voodoo doll of Tommy Rees that he had made after last year's ND/USC game, or God really does want to know how much Irish fans love her.

It isn't that I am ignoring Denard Robinson's fourth quarter performance in this rambling mess of a reaction piece, its just that I don't know where to start, and for someone trying to analyse and classify a game, this is a scary juncture.  I just don't know, man.

Starting at 2:13 remaining in the third quarter Robinson threw 11 passes in the fourth quarter for 279 yards and three touchdowns (while scoring a rushing touchdown after a Hopkins fumble):

1. Seventy-seven yard crossing route to Junior Hemingway while he, Robinson, was being pulled to the ground by a Notre Dame lineman.
2. Fifteen yard swing pass to John McColgan on second and 15 following a sack the play before.
3. Fourteen yard fade to Jeremy Gallon for the first touchdown.
4. Forty-five yard jump ball to Junior Hemingway when the offense was backed up to second and nine at its own ten yard line.
5. End zone interception.
6. Incomplete pass.
7. Twenty-seven yard corner route to Kelvin Grady.
8. Twenty-one yard screen pass to Vincent Smith for the go ahead touchdown with 1:12 left on the clock.
9. Incomplete pass.
10. Sixty-four yard pass to Gallon on a wheel route to set up first and ten at the Notre Dame 16 yard line with eight seconds left on the clock.
11. Sixteen yard fade to Roy Roundtree for the winning touchdown with two seconds left in the game.

Denard Robinson led eight meaningful drives before the final two minutes of the third quarter.  Five ended in punts, two ended in interceptions, and one ended in the only touchdown of the first three quarters.  Not one drive lasted longer than four plays.  

Beginning just before the fourth quarter, Robinson led five drives before the end of the game.  Four ended in touchdowns scored by Robinson, two went for over 80 yards, and the other two went for over 40.  The longest drive was five plays.

And this is where I fall short when trying to explain just what Denard Robinson did on Saturday, because the difference between the first eight drives and the last five is more wide and unexplainable than anything I have ever seen from any football player in my lifetime.  I list the numbers for scale and perspective, but they are so out of whack with anything I am used to that it is jarring.

Fifty-nine yards through three quarters, 279 yards in the fourth quarter.

Two interceptions and one touchdown through three quarters, three touchdowns and an interception in the fourth quarter.

The story of Denard Robinson's fourth quarter against Notre Dame is the story of two quarterbacks that we very likely won't see again this season.  Two samples taken from opposite ends of the dilithium spectrum.  One ineffective and pinned under an offense that asks too much of his lesser talents while minimizing the things he does best, the other elusive and explosive and capable of creating a big play out of thin air every time he touches the ball.  This was a quarterback struggling mightily and then in a snap controlling a game like a puppeteer.  We were treated to the very highs and lows of the Denard Robinson experience at Michigan.  There was plenty of freshman Denard who struggled to finding receivers, who looked wore down and out manned by a defense that was clearly focused on containing him in the pocket, and missed a number of throws.  And just when all hope seemed to be lost, when Robinson was just about to be wrapped up for a sack in the backfield that would have pinned the Wolverines inside their ten yard line on second and long      effectively ending any real hope of a comeback given how the game had went up to that point      out stepped the action hero to star in the less plausible sequel to last fall's blockbuster.  The odds were greater, the enemy tougher, and there was even a sidekick this time.  The rest may as well have been scored by John Williams      it certainly felt cinematic.

Last year after the Notre Dame game I compared Denard to Barry Sanders.  I talked about how much joy there was in watching a player unlike any other that had ever suited up for Michigan in the past.  Seeing a young kid who busted his ass to win the starting quarterback job, and then played the position so well that it left everyone slack-jawed at whatever in the hell just happened.  After years of being ground down by sports, suspicious and cynical about athletes, coaches, and leagues, Denard Robinson gave me that little bit of perspective to remember why I loved the game in the first place   It showed through every time he grinned like a slightly embarrassed kid trying to play it cool but failing while in front of the press or laughed with teammates on the sideline.  He loves the game of football.  When you spend a lot of free time obsessing over the minutia of college football that is wholly out of your control and absorbing abuse from rivals on message boards, something as small and genuine as a guy smiling really wide because he is just so happy in the moment can go a long way toward helping you understand that this thing we cheer for is in a way both more and less serious than we believe it to be.

Thus we are back to the place where I look for answers.  Where Denard's fourth quarter against Notre Dame hangs in the air out of my grasp      just a kid playing the game that he loves      and I reach for it to try and grab on tight and see where it will lead in the future.

As I walked around my house after the game Saturday night, it kept coming back to me: that actually happened.  I didn't dream it or make it up.  The Michigan Wolverines had actually won a game against Notre Dame from a 17 point fourth quarter deficit.  I walked from room to room trying to find anyone who was still there and in some sort of shape to have the kind of party that I had missed earlier in the night while I sat nervously in a closed bedroom shouting at a TV and slamming keg beer during commercial breaks.  Everyone was either passed out or gone home, what remained were drunken heads dragging tired and inebriated bodies to chairs and beds and an deep sleep.

I ended up back in my room, alone, watching highlights of the game, all the while laughing and doing double takes trying to figure out what just happened.  Trying to come up with a theory of just what to expect from Robinson the rest of this season.  What quarterback shows up next week?  For the MSU game?  For OSU?  How does the offense change to fit Robinson in the coming weeks?  Does the team adapt?  These are important questions that I felt needed to be answered.

I sit here two days later, and it still isn't clear  Won't ever be.  

One thing is, however: Denard Robinson just about lost the game.  Then he went out and won it.  This year I understand just what he is capable of      I have seen it with my own eyes        

Absolutely anything.

On Saturday, we got everything we needed.  The rest we will have to wait.

Incomplete Thoughts From an Incomplete Game

Good to have you back, TWolf. (Melanie Maxwell I AnnArbor.com)

Had I known the game itself wasn't going to make it to the fourth quarter I might have had a little more of a sense of urgency in the hours before the game.

Instead of tuning in for the beginning of the game I spent most of the first quarter driving to a friends house where I was going to spend the next eight plus hours stuffing my face with junk food followed by cheap domestic beer.  I was running late because this was the first Saturday in months that I decided to actually accomplish something in the morning instead of laying around like a worthless pile of skin, and I was relocating because I was being exiled from my house due to a huge half-marathon that was shutting down all the roads in my neighborhood the next day, thus interfering with my commute to work Sunday morning.

I missed Western Michigan's entire first drive (probably for the best) and walked in just in time to see the Wolverines attempt a fourth and short to keep the long drive alive in the end of the first quarter.  From there the game was all over the place with weather delays, technical difficulties, and eventually, an early and somewhat anticlimactic end.  After re-watching the game this morning     courtesy of the indescribably awesome Boys n da Pahokee on the mgoboard     this is what I saw:

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

(I should have a column on Denard Robinson up at Maize n Brew tomorrow, but for now, here are my postgame thoughts.  Enjoy.)

Best backup QB in the country?

I couldn't quite put my finger on what was different about yesterday afternoon.  In the hours leading up to the game I watched Illinois drop opportunity after opportunity in their upset bid against MSU (who is week in and week out executing and not breaking down mentally.  It's a brave new world for Sparty it seems), and I threw on an episode of Breaking Bad at halftime.  As the FSU vs. BC game finished and the coverage shifted to Ann Arbor I settled into my seat with a beer at my side and the computer tuned to scores across the nation.

The strange thing was, I wasn't nervous.  The last six games have all began with me nervously pacing around the apartment and yelling at the TV until I settled in somewhere near the end of the 1st quarter.  I sent a text message to my old roommate asking why I was so calm.  His response was simple, "I'm calm too.  I think it's because the pressure is off."  The pressure wasn't really off, but the difference from the previous weeks was palpable.  UConn and Notre Dame would set the course for the season and UMass and Bowling Green were opportunities for a gigantic regression that was worrisome until the game was in hand (making UMass one of the most nerve wracking wins since Ball State in 2006).  Indiana posed a huge threat to our defense, and the prospect of losing to Michigan State a third year in a row was maddening.

The Wake Up Call

Rude awakening.

I have been putting this off for over a day now.

I first sat down with the intention of writing my postgame thoughts Saturday night after the seven Michigan State fans I spent most of the weekend with left for the bar, leaving me alone with a glass of whiskey and the hum of Florida vs. LSU in the background.  I typed maybe five or six different openings but wasn't happy with what came out, and on top of it I was only half interested in writing anything.  I clicked back and forth between other open tabs on Chrome and felt myself pulled further and further into Les Miles world of madness.  Finally I pushed the computer away.  Sometimes you just need a little time to let things sink in.

Time to Believe

I've been over all the numbers.  I have watched every second of Michigan's season and the better part of three games that Michigan State has played.  I have read no less than a half dozen full fledge game previews and listened to the predictions of friends on both sides of the rivalry.  I am now at data overload.

And what do I know after all of this?  Nothing, really.  But that's why they play the game.

The Rewind: Indiana

Excellent play from the receiver position has taken this offense to the next level.

I watched the first half of this weekend's game in a loud sports bar surrounded by about 12 friends, and I listened to the second half on my car's radio.  Needless to say I didn't get a chance to focus on much.  Here are a few observations I had when re-watching the game today.

Another One for the Win Column

The legend grows.

A friend of mine got married Saturday, which put me in the uncomfortable position of leaving the house to watch the game.  After the early wedding ceremony I drove to four different bars within the immediate vicinity of the reception in hopes of finding one that had the game.  Two of the bars were permanently closed, and a third had two TV's and no ESPNU.  Needless to say I was getting very annoyed that the city of Wixom   and its inability to support a decent sports bar   might cost me a chance to watch the game.  I switched on the radio as I drove to the fourth bar and caught the tail end of Indiana's first touchdown drive.  As I pulled in to the parking lot a commercial came on just after the extra point.  I was barely inside the door before Denard Robinson broke free for his first touchdown.  That quick strike touchdown set the tone for the whole day.

My Favorite Things: Bowling Green

Some weeks this postgame recap almost writes itself.  In fact, the Wolverines pitched such a perfect game on Saturday that I am having a hard time limiting myself to just three favorite things.

Mike Hart/Chris Perry but fast, is that what you said Fred?  I'm not buying it.

The offense was on another plain of existence Saturday, only failing to score on two drives.  One of those drives ended with an unfortunate fumble by Stephen Hopkins.  The other drive was a turnover on downs that was preceded by not one but two beautiful touchdown passes   the "I can't believe I'm this open" drop by Junior Hemingway, and the great catch and run by Kelvin Grady on the seam route that was called back after a personal foul.  The defense also had a largely productive day, only allowing two sustained touchdown drives and a total of 283 yards while stifling the Falcon's rushing offense to a measly 1.2 ypc.  The 251 yards passing is a bit of a red flag, but take away the long tunnel screen touchdown (77 yards) that was aided by a hold on James Rogers, and the numbers are even more impressive, especially for a team that makes its living passing the ball.

This was the kind of game that most felt should have happened the previous week against UMass, and while that game still leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouth, it is great to see the Wolverines play vintage dominating football.  This Bowling Green team might not be great, but they are not the level of the baby seal that was clubbed last year for nearly the same ridiculous stats.  If there is anything to be concerned about from Saturday, it is that Denard Robinson doesn't need to take bone crushing hits to risk injury, but we all knew that already, even if we didn't want to admit it.  So lets jump right in to my favorite things.

Fanaticism and Football

I was bouncing back and forth on mgoblog yesterday for about the thousandth time in the past week when I came across Zone Left's belated response to Brian's conclusion of his 2010 team preview.  The final piece of the preview dealt with an email that had been floating around his inbox for months from a wayward philosophy student at Trinity College who was trying to come to terms with his love of Notre Dame football in relation to "urrybody else."  Both Zone Left and Brian go over the great pains that their fandom has put them through, and ultimately come to admittedly insufficient conclusions about why this team means as much to them as it does.

Probably the first player I ever really remember.

I feel compelled then to take a stab at this question as well, if only to in some way justify to myself the inordinate amount of time I spend thinking or reading about Michigan football to the detriment of almost everything else in my life.  It is either that or I shrug it off, mutter "fuck it", and go back to worrying that Bowling Green's backup quarterback will be an effective replacement on Saturday, Ezeh will play passive at MLB, and Mouton will continue his regression to 2009 levels of linebacker play.  I would like to think asking myself why I would spend all day worrying about this is more productive than simply worrying about it.

--

My Favorite Things: UMass

While there wasn't much to celebrate between the special teams gaffes and the defensive struggles on Saturday, this weeks edition of My Favorite Things still has plenty to choose from on the offensive side of the ball.

1. Denard Robinson

Get used to this.  This blog is quickly turning from a place for me to share my thoughts on Michigan football to a place for me to fawn over Denard Robinson.  Whle the numbers from Saturday aren't as eye popping as they were when Robinson decided to single-handedly dismantle the ND defense, they are still a sight to behold.  Of the 14 passes Robinson threw, 10 were completed for a total of 241 yards.  He thew two touchdowns as well as his first interception of the season.  Not only are these numbers impressive on their own, they have shown us a few things about Robinson that we did not see the first two weeks.

The first pass Robinson threw looked like it was taken straight from the 2009 season.  With Roy Roundtree beating his defender deep, Robinson threw a bullet that was tipped by a (edit: safety) underneath and then caught by the corner back.  Robinson tried too hard to force the ball in with a Navarre like bullet pass, and probably misread the safety as well.

How did Denard respond to his first bit of adversity?  He completed over 75% of his passes from then on out and ended the day with 17.2 ypa.  More importantly he didn't shy away from the deep ball.

Looking for a Silver Lining: UMass

A superior Michigan team took the field early on Saturday against an outmatched opponent.  Most figured the game was simply a tune up for more important games in the future.  A chance to rest starters and give younger back ups a few game time reps.  Michigan doesn't lose games like this.

The underdogs had other plans.  They shocked the favored Wolverines early, forcing turnovers and stealing an early lead.  Like a prizefighter who comes in complacent the home team was knocked on its heels, but soon stormed back to reclaim the halftime lead.  The Wolverines kept the foot on the gas pedal in the third, but a funny thing happened in the final quarter of play:  the underdogs wouldn't go away.  Capitalizing on defensive mistakes and a shift in momentum the game closed in to within one score late, and it looked like the unthinkable might happen.

Preview Central: Remember, Remember the First of September

I remember back to the 2007 season.  I was in my final semester at UM, and was staying in my temporarily vacant apartment on the kindness of my landlord who allowed me to crash on an air mattress until I found somewhere else to live.  I had no access to TV or internet, most of my friends had graduated and moved out in the last month, and the only bright spot I had staring down this final semester was one more round of season tickets.

Being without internet in my empty apartment, I wandered down to the Michigan Union the Saturday of the first game.  I knew of a few iMacs tucked away in an alcove on the 4th floor because I worked in an office around the corner (obligatory SORC shout out).  I went up there mostly to pass time, but also to see what nuggets of information ESPN might have for me.  I read about the team, and about the game, but I wasn't really interested.

The game was largely an afterthought.  "Appalachian who?" I smugly thought.  Teams from Div. I-AA are just warm ups.  I had seem enough early season cupcake games in my last four years of in the student section to feel I knew the script.  UM scores a couple early touchdowns   the old Big House two touchdown advantage coaches used to talk about   and the game is in the bag by halftime.

--

Nobody writes off I-AA teams anymore, at least nobody but Houston Nutt.  Some of these small programs have built themselves into powerhouses of the FCS division on great coaching, schemes, and players who fall through the cracks at the highest levels but can be very productive in the right system.  Then the big dogs from the FBS come calling for an easy win with a big paycheck in hand.  Four I-AA teams beat I-A teams last week.  The week before Jacksonville St. beat Ole Miss with two of the most exciting final plays I have ever seen, a 4th and 15 pass to the back of the end zone for a touchdown, then a miraculous scramble and shovel pass for the go ahead 2-pt conversion in the second overtime.  So much for easy wins.

Hangovers, Notre Dame, and Denard Robinson Making Me Love Football Like A Child Again

"I need a drink."

As Dayne Crist's last second pass to the end zone sailed high above the outstretched hands of everyone and into the third row, I slumped over against the wall and started repeating that phrase.  My nerves were wrecked.  I needed something to calm myself.  Whiskey would have to do.

--

I had spent the last three and a half hours nervously watching the game, pacing around the apartment, and yelling so loud at the TV that my roommate gave up sleeping in the next room and decided to join me in the livingroom.  All the better to watch the spectacle of a college football fan driven mad by the frustration of playing Notre Dame at Notre Dame, where anything could go wrong at any time.  I worried aloud during the first half as the offense failed to capitalize on the mistakes of Crist's replacements.  I sent frantic text messages to friends who were also watching the game, and followed the box score online looking for any signs of hope in the numbers.  I found very little encouragement not preceded by the name:  Robinson.  When Crist came back in the second half I lost all hope and optimism.  A blown coverage on his second play back was all I needed to sink deep into my chair and wish for a quick end.  I am hopelessly fatalistic when it comes to Michigan football, and I hate myself for it.

Yet the team hung around.  The defense made enough plays to hold Notre Dame off.  It looked like we might escape South Bend after all.  Then all hell broke loose.  Crist connected with Rudolph on a deep seam route that was horribly misread by Cam Gordon.  And I collapsed again.  Isn't this how it always happens against Notre Dame?

The rest, they say, is history.  Denard Robinson picked the team up off the mat and put together the first scoring drive in almost thirty minutes of game time.  He was quick, efficient, and focused as the team slowly marched forward for the kill shot.  Once he hit Roundtree between the numbers on 3rd and 5 I knew it was all over.  Denard wasn't going to let this team lose.

Preview Central: Notre Dame vs. Michigan

Let this get you in the mood for the game.


After one week of football, there are only three things we know going into this game:

1. Denard Robinson is for real.  Really, really, real.
2. Michael Floyd is going to have his pimp hand nice and ready for Michigan's secondary.
3. Everyone else in the country is rooting for some way that both teams can lose this game.

Is UConn the Big East contender that everyone proclaimed them to be in August?  (Bonus question, does that even say anything positive about them when Rutgers takes a half of football to get warmed up against Norfolk St., Pitt is still coached by the Wannstache, and Cincinnati looks downright pedestrian under Butch "Sloppy Seconds" Jones?)  Was Michigan's defense that effective in stopping an experienced UConn offense, or did they stop themselves?  What about the UConn defense that spent all of last Saturday taking worse pursuit angles than a squad put together by a high school for the blind?

On the other side of the fence, what about Purdue?  Did Allen and Wood terrorize a competent defense, or is this unit the same 94th ranked rushing D from last year?  Was Purdue's back seven responsible for neutralizing Michael Floyd, or does that honor go to Dayne Crist?  Does anyone think Robert Marve can be a productive quarterback outside of Robert Marve?

My Favorite Things: UConn

I am trying to work out a number of regular features during the season, such as Coast to Coast, Midwest Madness, Key Possessions, and this post My Favorite things.  Having ideas of what to write will help me produce content.  If something is working well, or not working at all, please let me know.  With that said, on with the show.






I am a big fan of jazz music, so when it came for inspiration for this next piece of post-game retrospective, I turned to John Coltrane for inspiration.

There are a lot of positives to take away from this game.  Each week I'll try to pick my favorite three things from a win (and maybe my three least favorite things from a loss, that will depend on my mood).  Lets get to the list.

Key Possessions: UConn

One of the big keys to success this year is gaining momentum early in the game.  Against UConn on Saturday, the first possession by each team was dominated by Michigan.  This set the tone for the rest of the afternoon.  Let's take a look at just what happened:

• 14:55 - If there was ever a defensive play I was excited to see, it was this.  Three players all around the ball for the tackle and no gain on the pass out to the flat, added to the fact that Cam Gordon got sideline contain.  Follow this up with a TFL by Mouton on the next play, then a false start penalty, and finally heavy pressure on Frazer's third and long throw, and you have exactly the kind of stop the defense needed to make.  This more than anything set the tone for the game.  The UM defense that was supposed to come out and get pushed around by an experienced offensive unit played fast and aggressive.  They might make mistakes this year, but if they play with this much fire things should be just fine.
• 13:30 - Who is this team again?  The first two offensive plays are out of the I-form.  Who let Lloyd in the booth?  Both the run by Shaw and the hitch pass to Stonum look like vintage Carr plays.
• 12:31 - Denard takes the snap, fakes the handoff, and steps into a quick throwing stance, freezing the linebacker and opening a huge running lane.  Who else is excited to see the kind of openings in the defense that pump fakes will open up for Denard Robinson this year?
• 12:22 - And coming in for the only penalty of the day, Patrick Omameh, with an inexcusable late hit.  I like the enthusiasm, but Omameh has to be aware not only that the whistle was blown, but that Robinson was already down in front of him.  For this offense to be successful, linemen will have to constantly block down the field, and this team can't afford to have drives stalled by 15 yard penalties.
• 12:22 - The next play is perfect.  As diagrammed at Burgeoning Wolverine Star, this play is a 100% improvement in execution from last year, and one block away from six points.
• 11:17 - This play goes for positive yards, but looks to be improvised after blocking breaks down on the right side.  Shaw comes across the backfield, but then does a 180 and runs off Schilling's left hip.  My guess is that Dorrestein did not kick the DE out far enough and Shaw got cold feet.  It could be a designed counter (I'll wait for the offensive UFR at MGoBlog), but the cutback develops too slow to imagine this being very effective against solid linebackers.  However, if it is a broken play, it is nice to see a five yard gain, something we didn't see much of last year when the blocking broke down.
• 10:13 - 3rd and short.  Michael Shaw up the gut?  Excuse me while I flash back to Illinois '09.  Isn't this what we brought Stephen Hopkins in for?  No matter, as this is another 1st down.
• 9:21 - First, this is an excellent misdirection with the play action.  All the action goes left except for Robinson, Schilling, and Koger.  The LB's don't bite, but are caught watching long enough to give Robinson a head start.  The only man who can pick up the sack is the DE, and Schilling makes short work of him.  Koger finds an open spot below the safety and Robinson throws a strike.  This should be an offensive staple all year.
• 9:00 - This no gain is probably on Omameh.  He gets stood up by the DT who is able to keep his shoulders square to the play.  By the rest of the blocking   and the backside LB who eventually makes the tackle   I'll guess this run is supposed to go in the G/T gap.  If Omameh turns the DT inside it would seal off the LB coming in from the backside and allow Shaw to get to the second level.  After getting blown off the ball early on this drive and committing a penalty, the day hasn't started well for Omameh.
• 7:40 - This TD is all Vincent Smith.  UConn sends four players right to the spot on the line that Smith is trying to run through.  Schilling does a good job of staying between his man and the runner even after getting knocked down and turned around.  Smith then goes to work making people miss.  I don't think there is another running back on the team capable of turning this from a no gain to a TD.  Also, credit must be given to both Stonum and Roundtree (or was it Grady?), who neutralize the only players in the secondary capable of getting the stop after Smith makes it through the line.

So the first drive of the day for UConn goes for -9 yards.  Despite a booming punt that pushes Michigan back to its own four yard line, the offense rattles off a 14 play, 96 yard drive.  Denard Robinson completes two passes and runs for three 1st downs himself.  Even with a handful of mistakes this offense is still able to move the ball, only once losing yards (a one yard loss on the run by Shaw).  

All in all it was a great day for the offense.  Two scoring drives went for 96 yards, one went for 77 yards, one for 75, and the offense even capitalized on the shanked punt by taking the ball 38 yards for a TD.  To top it off, UConn was only given two meaningful possessions in the second half, and the defense did its job on both forcing a fumble and a turnover on downs.

Make no mistake though, the game turned ugly for UConn because of execution by both the offense and defense early.  A three and out for the defense followed by a long touchdown drive, and now the home team has all the momentum and confidence.  If this team can make a statement early in games this year it will go a long way toward making things easier on the defense while allowing the offense to worry about ball control and clock management rather than playing catch-up.

There are still quite a few questions swirling around this team, but we can all rest easier after Saturday knowing that the team is capable of establishing itself early.

This Must Be the Place: UConn

My continuing effort to frame the 2010 football season within the context of songs by the Talking Heads:




Home, is where I want to be.

I certainly felt at home Saturday afternoon.  That feeling has been a long time coming.  There was a certain comfort and security that hung over my Michigan fandom early in life.  I went into every season with the explicit expectation that the team would win the Big Ten and challenge for the national championship.  You can probably blame this on 1997 national championship, which happened just around the time I really started to understand the games I was watching in the greater context of seasons and programs and history.  Before the 1997 national championship I rooted for UM because my father did, and that meant by extension I did too.  After the national championship my love of Michigan football was now crystallized in the realization that the team I loved was the best, whether they really were or not.  The love grew from there until I finally joined in to that game day tradition as a student.  Blue was always the only way to go.

The Ballad of Little Man Tate

Tate doesn't seem to have much to
dance about these days.

I think it's safe to say that in his short football career at the University of Michigan, Tate Forcier has just about seen all the highs and lows that college football has to offer.  The quarterback-from-birth went from savior to scapegoat over the course of the 2009 season.  After the shredding of UConn's defense yesterday by the new and improved Denard Robinson, followed by the shots of a dejected and embarrassed Forcier on the bench,  the young quarterback has now moved firmly into the category of "afterthought."  All the while Tate hasn't changed.  He is still the same quarterback full of grit and moxie with crazy accuracy and a coaching pedigree that most pro's can't claim.  The same quarterback who brought the team back from the dead in two games, and forced overtime in a third 4th quarter comeback.  No, Tate is the same quarterback we have always known he was.  We have just changed the way we see him, for better or worse.

Half Full or Half Empty? Quarterback

The final entry in my series of best and worst case scenarios for the upcoming season.  I would do one on special teams, but its pretty simple.  Kicking and punting come down to freshman stepping up, and the return game, to paraphrase MGoBlog comes down do "HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL.  Let's now look at the biggest x factor for the coming season, the quarterback position.

The two-headed monster.  I still
have nightmares about 2008.

The story of the Michigan offense these last two years is largely a story of quarterback play   or lack thereof (amirite?).  2008 was the worst offensive year any of us have ever seen because the options at quarterback were a walk-on and a pro style passer unfit to run the spread and shred.  This is a reductive view that doesn't take in to account the worst offensive line of the last ten years, and two freshman running backs, but bare with me.  2009 was a year of promise and ultimately failure, on the backs of one quarterback who was tasked with too much pressure to carry an offense (losing your best option at RB and the heart of your offensive line at different points will do that), and another quarterback who had all of three weeks of formal training at the position before the season.  The quarterbacks did the best they could with the injuries and inexperience that surrounded the team last year.  Their best wasn't good enough.

This year is different.  The offense returns almost wholly intact and deeper than before.  The defense returns a lot of its contributors from last year and is finally nearing the point where there is a legitimate two deep at every position.  Questions abound for this team as we enter the season, but none of them seem to matter as much as who takes the first snap this Saturday.  This isn't a real question, since it is clear all three options at quarterback will play.  That doesn't really matter, because if there is one thing the media loves more than Brent Favre's annual retirement fiasco, it is a full fledged quarterback controversy.

So we return to the question that launched the discussion of running backs:  If you have two quarterbacks, do you indeed have none?