Third and Doom*

*(The good kind of doom.)

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say something that is either so wildly obvious or so naively reductive that I will lose all credibility in the eyes of you, my reader.  Here goes anyway.

It's all about the third downs, man.

I've long held on to third down conversion numbers as a sort of "go to" stat; something that, when looked at in the context of all the other numbers is going to tell me how well or poorly the offense or defense performed.  There is variation, sure.  When you play Minnesota you might not see many third downs because your team is so successful on first and second.  On top of that, some defenses are more designed to "bend and not break" and will necessarily allow more third down conversions as teams move the ball.  And some teams     cough, Notre Dame, cough     may have a lot of success converting third downs against you, but are done in by turnovers of the back-breaking variety.

So yes, I know it isn't a perfect system, but when taken in the context of a game, third down conversion percentage for both offense and defense can paint a great picture of just how good a team played.  Consider the following:

• Would you have guessed that Michigan's worst loss of the year coincided with its worst day on third down in the Big Ten season? (Michigan State converted 7/14; Michigan converted 3/15; Woof.).
• Or that Michigan's three most dominant defensive performances in the Big Ten came on days allowing just 29% (Illinois), 23% (Purdue), and 0% (Minnesota).
• Or that Michigan's defensive third down rate is 40th in the nation right now (36%) while it was 95th last year (43%).  (Although the 2009 defense also posted a 37% allowed rate, good for 40th.  I say this for full disclosure.  I have no idea how that number is so good comparatively, but I do know that the numbers don't include just how crippling some of those allowed conversions were.  So, in that case I'd rather preempt you, dear reader, with evidence of my being an idiot, than have you point it out later).

All of this is going the long way around introducing what has been my favorite part of the 2011 Greg Mattison defensive revival: third down stops.

Over the past few days I have finally gotten around to reading Three and Out, and on Saturday I had a long discussion before the Illinois game began about the book with a friend who is just about as obsessed with the team as I am.  We argued about what the most disheartening loss of 2009 was (I said Illinois, he said Purdue), shared a laugh about the scene in the book where Brian Cook confronts Michael Rosenberg after the Freep-Jihad presser, complained about the lack of discussion of the Shafer -> Gerg transition, and both agreed that the 2008 Utah game might be the most inexplicable thing that happened during the entire Rich Rodriguez era.

Once the game began and the defense came out hot, we both shifted out attention to just how good this team has been on third down, especially third-and-short.  After just having read about a stomach churning third-and-24 conversion that I remember like it happened yesterday, it is strange to see the defense line up to stop a third-and-short conversion and know, I mean know in my soul, that the other team is going to be punting on the next play (or, if coached by Kirk Ferentz, break character and go for it on fourth down to infuriate me).



I mean, that right there is a thing of beauty.  This is what good defenses do.  They demoralize the opponent by refusing to budge even one inch when all the offensive player needs to do is simply fall forward to keep the offense on the field.

So when Illinois lined up in the first quarter in a third-and-one situation at its own 23-yard line, for the first time in years I waited, grinning at what I knew was to come because I had seen it before.  You don't get one yard on this defense without a fight.



It speaks to the job that Greg Mattison has done with this defense that I am more confident in a third-and-one stop that I am third-and-five or more.  Michigan still isn't perfect     no team is     but you can see every time that group steps on the field that the call is right, the effort is superb, and the assignments are carried out.  If another team gets two when it needs one, it isn't because the Wolverines beat themselves*.

More than all the other signs of hope for the future of this defense, from the quick development of freshman like Blake Countess, to the way young players like Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan fix mistakes from game to game to become better players, to the ever evolving series of blitz packages that are confusing the hell out of opposing quarterbacks, the thing that I have been most impressed with is that Mattison has delivered on his promise of the offseason: the team will work to stop the run.  Nothing is more central to that goal than lining up and stopping the other team when both you and they know exactly what is coming, and they dare you to make the play to stop it.

The offense may still be a bumbling mess tied to a  rocket powered cheetah, and Michigan's special teams play is going to haunt me for years like 'Nam haunts crazy old war vets     including fever dreams that are a series of rapid fire shots of Jeremy Gallon muffing punts     but for the first season in years, I can confidently say that the defense is in the right hands.

Now, about that shotgun formation...

*(Isn't always, I mean.  Typical freshman starters disclaimer applies.)

Why Are You Playing Checkers With a Chess Set

Two weeks ago after watching Ohio State and Michigan State play in a game that was one giant bitch-slap to offensive football, I was bouncing around the usual Buckeye blogs to try to find something to help me prove a point to some MSU friends about just why I was still skeptical about the MSU defense being the best in the Big Ten.

What I found was an offensive review of the game that had three subheadings: Back to the Well: The Constraint Theory; Why Beat Your Head Against The Wall?; and Execution Mishaps.  After watching Michigan put up a similarly putrid offensive effort against the Spartans, I am so totally stealing those to help me make sense of just how the offensive game plan failed.

Why Beat Your Head Against The Wall?

Denard Robinson was 2/2 for ten yards after the first offensive series, and he turned the final pass play into a 15-yard scramble for a touchdown.  How did the Wolverines complete these two passes?  Both were quick outs thrown from a moving Robinson and designed to attack the safeties in a moment of indecision: "is he going to run or throw?"  Both worked for the obvious reason     completed pass, duh     but more importantly, both were designed to get the ball out to play makers in the flats and away from the mass of Spartan defenders in the box.

From that point on I can only remember running that play two more times (however, there might have been one or two more called).  One of them was run right into a blitz off the edge and batted down.  The rest of the 41 pass plays?  Straight drops by Denard Robinson and roll outs by Devin Gardner.  Those plays yielded as many completions for Denard (seven) as sacks allowed and as many points for the offense (six) as points for the defense.

Even more maddening?  On the first drive Michigan ran the ball six times for 47 yards (excluding the scramble and fake FG) on almost eight yards per carry.  That was six running plays in six minutes of game time for almost one third of the gained rushing yards on the day (NCAA stats list Michigan with 151 positive yards to 69 negative).  Michigan would go on to rush the ball twenty times over the rest of the game while passing 39 times into swirling 25 mph winds that made Spartan Stadium look like one of those tornado-in-a-bottle science projects you make when you're in middle school.

Would Michigan have been able to continue to run for 8 yards per carry.  No, Michigan State has a very good run defense and would have held the Wolverines to lower ypc numbers over the course of the game.  However, I vote we change the definition of insanity from "doing the same thing and expecting different results" to "running all vertical passing routes and five to seven step quarterback drops against six or more pass rushers in a howling windstorm."  Specificity, man.

Back to the Well: The Constraint Theory:

Two things were certain going into the game on Saturday:

1. Michigan State didn't respect Denard Robinson's ability to pass down field.
2. Therefore, Michigan State would blitz like mad to disrupt down field passes knowing that Robinson wouldn't be able to make the throws in time.

One of the interesting parts in the OSU offensive review a couple weeks back was a quote pulled from a longer piece by Chris Brown of Smart Football on The Constraint Theory*.  If you don't know constraint theory, just know this:  The crux of it is that every football team has something it wants to do, call it A, and every good defense will eventually adjust and cheat to take away A.  Therefore, an offense must have a game plan, B, in place to catch the defense overreacting to A, allowing the offense to go back to A until the defense cheats again.

Anyway, at the end of the block quote is one of the best summations of football I have ever heard, and a pretty good explanation of why I love the game so much, "That’s the beauty of football: punch, counterpunch."

If you watched the game on Saturday you saw the Michigan State defense slowly adjust itself to attack Michigan where it was the most vulnerable.  MSU sent blitzes from every angle, usually not well disguised, and bet that the amount of times Michigan would fail to take advantage of mismatches in the deep and intermediate passing game would cancel out any positive plays.  Weather, Mark "the revolving door" Huyge, and precedent all played into that decision, and it worked brilliantly.

The problem for Michigan was that the counter punch never came.

Take for instance the final play of the first quarter.  Michigan is in a shotgun trips formation with the receivers to the wide side of the field and a tight end on the boundary side.  MSU shows blitz with the SLB moving down so that he is shaded over Molk's right shoulder, then the MLB stacks behind the SLB just before the snap.  This is the area where Vincent Smith is about to go with an inside hand off.  The play gets stuffed.  

Meanwhile the MSU corner is two yards off the wide receiver and the WLB/NB is six yards off the line and over the two slot receivers.  Once the MLB commits to the blitz the next closest player to the flat is the safety eleven yards deep and standing inside the hash.  A quick throw to the slot receiver gets two on two blocking in the flat on the wide side of the field and instead of losing one yard on an inside hand off straight into two blitzing linebackers, Michigan gets at least five with a favorable match up in the flat and possibly more with a missed tackle.  

Michigan State did the same thing to Ohio State, and teams from here on out are going to keep players inside to bottle up the run.  Borges has to spread the defense out so that five blockers aren't taking on six and seven defenders in the box.  Bubble screens are a great way to attack the edges and keep defenses from sticking linebackers in the box and daring Michigan to run without numbers.  This is just one of the constraint plays I was practically begging for on Saturday.

The Spartans were able to stick eight men in the box all day and rush five or more because Borges didn't once call a play to neutralize the pass rush.  No throwback screens, no bubble screens, no shovel passes or draws.

However, the worst part about the offensive game plan wasn't that Borges refused to call any of those B plays to catch the defense out of position; it was that the base plays, the A's that a team relies on, didn't at any point seem coherent and well designed.

This team lacks an offensive identity and obviously doesn't have a solid plan other than, "throw shit against the wall and see what sticks."  Is Michigan a shotgun spread team that runs a lot of zone, or an I-form team that runs power.  Is the passing game based off quick reads and easy short and intermediate routes or attacking the field vertically with seven step quarterback drops.

Up to this point it hasn't really mattered.  Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Minnesota, San Diego State, and Northwestern were the kind of defensive teams that are capable of various levels of resistance, but ultimately can't adjust fast enough when Borges flips to a random page of the playbook and points at something with his eyes closed.

And that is how the play calling felt this game.  There doesn't seem to be any logical progression through the playbook.  The best analogy I can think of is that Borges seemed to be playing checkers when he should have been playing chess.  Instead of just calling plays and trying to pick up yards here and there he needed to call plays with an eye toward the future; figure out ways to manipulate the overeager Spartan defense and find the weaknesses that are presented.  If Michigan State wants to blitz, find a way to set up a screen pass. If Michigan State wants to keep eight men in the box, throw the ball to the flat on a bubble screen.  If the defensive ends are charging off the edges and getting upfield too quickly, hand off on a draw to the halfback.  Chess.

Last week Burgeoning Wolverine Star looked at a nifty little two play progression that led to a touchdown.  Borges called a Maryland-I formation on the first short yardage play and motioned the full back directly over the intended hole before the snap.  Michigan is fortunate to get the first down.  A few plays later the same formation comes out, only this time the fullback motions over the same hole but then pulls across the formation as a receiver on a Devin Gardner bootleg.  Chris at BWS grants Borges some credit for setting this touchdown up with the first play.  I'm not so sure, and neither is Brian at MGo.  This seems to me like a very simple progression that doesn't really set the defense up to be caught off guard as much as it takes advantage of the defense being a bunch of Northwestern players.  Checkers.

My final piece of evidence in the growing case against Al Borges: various I-form plays have come on long down situations this season, and at some point I began jokingly saying to anyone within earshot "here comes the most surprising waggle in history," knowing deep in my heart just what was coming.  Over 75% of the time I was right.

When Michigan lined up in an I-from on fourth and one late in the game I couldn't get to my phone fast enough to text my friend and call it.  We all know how that play worked out.  Checkers.

Now, I don't hate Al Borges, or think I can do his job better than him.  However, these are real concerns as we approach a stretch of games that reads @Illinois, @Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State.  These teams may not be as good on defense as Michigan State (with the exception of Ohio State, which I think is close), but all four are better than anything Michigan has seen outside of Notre Dame during the six game winning streak that started the season.

Al Borges got exposed on Saturday as a guy who still hasn't settled on what he wants this offense to do.  He has all these odd pieces at his disposal but he has this gnawing urge to line them up in two-tight I-form every once and awhile to see if the finally Get It.  There was no greater plan, no thinking a few moves ahead.  All it is is, "right, left, right, jump, left, king me."  Unless Borges can find a way to better play into this groups skill set while building a coherent offensive progression designed to set defenses up to fail, this offense is going to struggle against defenses that bring a lot of pressure.

He has all the chess pieces, he just has to stop playing checkers with them.

*(I have a general rule that you should follow as well: if Chris Brown writes something, you should always read it.  He is so knowledgeable and well written that I can imagine his grocery lists are encoded with keys to breaking down the Tampa Two defense with four verts.)

Execution Mishaps:

That isn't to say that the fault lies totally with Borges.  He isn't the one on the field blowing blocking assignments and under throwing receivers.  The players have to step up their games in times like these.

• David Molk didn't have a great day.  He was the victim of a number of blitzes and stunts designed to trip him up and he simply couldn't handle the load.  This same thing happened to OSU center Mike Brewster two weeks ago, which means that either a) these guys had bad games, b) MSU sold the farm quite a few times on blitzes, or c) a little of both.
• Mark Huyge isn't an offensive tackle.  He may be a guard, but when faced with speed rushers off the edge he simply doesn't have the athleticism and technique to hold up on long developing pass plays.  Despite having a pretty good core group of offensive linemen, this one is on Rich Rodriguez's inability to bring in offensive linemen the last couple years.  It is only going to get worse.
• Omameh and Schofield both seemed to be pushed around by Michigan State's interior line and stymied by inside blitzes from the linebackers.
• I can't fault the receivers much in this one because they were either dealing with good coverage or badly thrown passes.  I would have liked to see Gallon get a few shots to make people miss in the flats on bubble screens.
• Denard.  First, let me preface this by saying I don't think he needs to be benched.  You don't take your biggest offensive weapon off the field, you give him ways to succeed and reap the benefits.  Although in this one his production was sorely lacking.  Now, disclaimers abound: the wind was an obvious factor on a number of throws and Michigan State spent most of the afternoon drinking his milkshake right up.  However, there were a few downright awful passes and a few potential scrambles that became sacks because of Robinson's indecision.  If he doesn't adjust to this kind of pressure the rest of the season is going to go about the same because you know teams are going to bring the heat from here on out.
• Other dings:  Vincent Smith's failed hot route on the pick-six, Grady's drop, and Lewan's face mask pin (you're better than that, son.).

--

This game needs to be a wake up call for everyone involved.  The offensive coaches need to readjust the way they prepare this team as well as build a cohesive offensive identity.  Brady Hoke needs to go for it on fourth down in the opponents territory.  Denard Robinson needs to settle himself in the pocket, set his body to throw, and take off when he feels pressure.

This offense isn't hopeless, but only if Al Borges starts using the pieces he has in the proper way.

Besides, chess is a better game, yo.

Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

I usually watch Michigan games alone.  It has been that way since I graduated college and left the communal atmosphere that makes one feel a part of the school and the games.  Being an alumni just isn't the same.  The love is there, but the camaraderie is missing.

Of course, the last few years didn't help that much.  I spent 2007 as a holdout in one final semester, most of my friends graduated and moving on with their lives, me clinging to my student tickets and the only thing that ever made sense to me: going to school.  The next two years I lived in East Lansing with a house full of MSU fans, who, while generally rational, enjoyed watching my in-game nervous twitching, tantrums, and manic depressive behavior too much for my comfort.  I spent many Saturdays in my room alone.  Last year was my first away from the Midwest, and living with a friend who couldn't have cared less about college football in any form, it was easy to find solitude in which to watch games.

In any case, the last four years of Michigan football, combined with my already nervous disposition, have driven me away from football as a communal experience.  I've become a college football hermit.

-

This year things are a little different.  I have more friends in the area, one of them a good college friend and one of only two people outside of my father who I go to to talk Michigan football.

I also don't have the Big Ten Network at home.  This has driven me find places outside the comfort of my house to watch games     something I'm not entirely comfortable with.  It has also driven me to sports bars more often than I would have liked.  Most games so far this year this  have been fine.  I watched the EMU game in an empty bar in Mio Michigan, I watched the SDSU game early in the afternoon in a half empty Buffalo Wild Wings that was just quiet enough for me to worry out loud and crack jokes to the others at my table, and I watched the Minnesota game at a friend's apartment as he got ready to watch the MSU game at 3:30.  All three cases were low stress.  Games were never in doubt, and I never had cause to flip out*.

Saturday night for the Northwestern game a few of us decided to go back to BWW.  I got there early and found a table right under a screen already tuned to the Big Ten network.  The Virginia Tech game was in the final minute (living in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, this is overwhelmingly the favorite team despite the a heavy military presence) and the whole place had a great college football buzz, different cheers erupting from corners of the bar, everyone closely following a game, and occasionally the majority of the place hooting and hollering at the game in Blacksburg.

Then the Tech game ended and the crowd started to thin out just as my blood pressure was rising.  The beginning of the Michigan game quickly went from ideal to, well, less than ideal.  You already know that part.

As the second quarter started the mood in the bar changed.  It was a UFC fight night, and slowly the place started to fill up with people waiting for the fight.  Pretty soon our TV got changed one of the under card fights and we had to track down the nearest manager to get BTN back, but not without hearing that no matter what, at nine o'clock the big screens were all going to be turned to the fight, and we would have to make due with a smaller TV tucked away  in a corner somewhere.  Over the noise of the patrons was the juke box playing just about everything I don't want to hear during a Michigan game with the exception of In The Big House     thank god for small miracles.

I don't know what your thoughts, dear reader, are on MMA fighting.  Whether you fancy it the sport of gentlemanly combat between well-trained chiseled Adonises, or a brutal Romanesque spectacle that excites only the basest instincts of meat heads and forearm tattoo enthusiasts** is immaterial.  What is most egregious in this writer's mind is the fact that on a football Saturday, with a handful of great college games available, the sports bar's main interest was showing an MMA fight.  Don't even get me started on the fact that the ALCS was shown on one TV, tucked away almost directly behind a large pillar***.

The crowd and the noise and the infuriating string of interceptions was too much, and by the time Pat Fitzgerald was lobbying for two seconds to be put back on the clock     all the while I couldn't tell what the hell was happening     I made up my mind.  The prospect of watching the second half of Michigan's return-to-earth game in a packed bar cheering for blood was too much.  I called a friend that I knew had BTN, asked if we could head over, and by the midpoint of halftime we had paid our bills and left.

*(Contrast this to the Notre Dame game, which I watched alone in my room in a depressed funk, then state of charged ecstasy.)

**(Seriously, I'm usually not one to stereotype, but by the fourth person who walked past in an Affliction t-shirt with some ridiculous forearm tattoo, I knew something was up and the congenial college football atmosphere had taken a turn for the worst.)


***(Like watching a game at old Tiger Stadium.  Am I right, folks?  Am I right?  I'll be here all night.)

-

I guess where I am going with all of this has less to do with the external environment of watching football than the things going on in my head (although to be fair, I am never going to watch a Michigan game in BWW again as a matter of principle.  Your boneless wings may be tasty and your large glasses of beer cheap, but you insistence on deifying MMA fighting is an outrage, but I digress).

I guess I have been spoiled as a fan.  I have for the most part stayed away from sports bars, avoided hostile fan bases (never once going to see Michigan play an away game other that the '07 Rose Bowl, which don't get me started on that), and been able to crawl inside a cocoon of self loathing and defeatist cries at every wrong turn.

Are other people miserable to watch Michigan football around, or is it me?  I'm afraid to answer that.
This game was no different.  I like to joke that the repeated blows of the last few years have hardened me to the failures of my alma mater, that I have become numb to incompetence and defeat.  This is a lie I tell myself so I feel better during all those hours I'm not actively freaking out about Michigan football.  I'm not numb to defeat, I find defeat in everything and constantly expect the worst.

This game was no different.  I spent the entire first half miserable about the failure of Denard Robinson to throw to his receivers, the failure of the defense to stop the Northwestern speed option, and the failure of Al Borges to stop calling The Most Surprising Waggle In History.

I wonder if this is it.  If I have been broken.  Have I wound myself too tightly in the success and failure of this team?  Do I not give the coaching staff enough credit when it comes to subtle in game adjustments and fixing player mistakes during the game?  Will every October bring a feeling of impending doom, as if it is only a matter of time before the other shoe falls and I end up pouring over recruiting rankings and repeating, "next year, next year" to myself like a crazy person?

I don't know the answer, but I certainly hope not.  This game is too much fun to take too seriously, and the players on the field work too hard to judge on the basis of wins and losses.  I would still think the world of Denard Robinson if he threw three more interceptions in the second half.  It would still be an honor to have Jordan Kovacs on the team even if he kept missing tackles on the option that led to touchdowns.

-

I know the cosmos doesn't care how I watch football and whatever higher power is up there has more important things to worry about than some neurotic 26 year old fan getting too worked up over things he can't control.  But it still feels like this season so far has been about healing the fan base.  Slow first halves give way to strong finishes.  Early mistakes are corrected during the game.  The impending October collapse is shaken off as Denard Robinson settles himself in the pocket and leads the team to four touchdowns on five drives in the second half.

I have no illusions of this team going undefeated.  It could very well lose next week to Michigan State.  But I am starting to get more comfortable with the idea that sometimes a loss is just a loss, and not a sign that the universe is unraveling at the seams.

But don't ask me my thoughts on that next Saturday.

Baby steps.

-

Now, what you are really here for: actual football talk.

Bullets:

• I don't know if I have ever seen an athlete capable of a greater range of play than Denard Robinson.  Between everything that happened last year, and the two comebacks this year, we have seen Denard at his absolute best, absolute worst, and everything in between.  This time we must make no excuses. Denard was just flat out bad in the first half Saturday.  Some interceptions are great plays (look at the INT Nebraska had against OSU late in their game), some interceptions are lucky bounces (Brandin Hawthorne nods knowingly), and some are just putrid throws that are completely inexcusable.
• That being said, Denard was pretty friggin' awesome in the second half.  He looked like a new quarterback.  He was patient in the pocket and on target with his throws.  If we get that Denard the rest of the season we win every game.  We won't get that Denard the entire rest of the season.  It has become a matter of how long he shows up.  Some games we don't need him (EMU, SDSU), some games we only need him for a quarter (ND, WMU), and some games more like a half (NU).  You can bet we will need three quarters of Good Denard if we want to beat Michigan State this weekend and Nebraska/Illinois/OSU in the future.
• The running backs were quiet, but one thing I really enjoyed was seeing Michael Shaw get a chance to play.  It grew increasingly obvious that the only way we would pick up yards on NU was to get the ball outside the tackles     a Mike Shaw specialty.  I still like the Fitz/Vince one two punch, but it is nice to know we can go to the well and change up the strategy if need be.  Shaw only finished with 25 yards, but he did it on just six carries (4.2 ypc) and got a touchdown out of it.
• Junior Hemingway was back in a big way, and goddamn can that man high-point a ball.  Any other receiver and I would call that first jump ball a product of luck (I'm looking at you Roy Roundtree, and also the CB that didn't turn around to see the ball almost hit him in the helmet), but with Junior the jump ball is more of an art.  In basketball some guys just know how to rebound; they understand innately how to get position under the basket, what angle to expect the ball to carom off the rim at, and when to jump.  Junior is exceptionally good at doing this on the football field.  I bet he is one helluva IM basketball player.
• I would like to kindly ask Al Borges to stop running The Most Surprising Waggle In History, but I'll be damned if the thing didn't work a couple times.  Sure, Denard's first throw was inches away from being of the hair-pulling variety, but the offense converted a couple times.  Still, it is pretty bad when I can announce every I-form tight play as The Most Surprising Waggle In History to the room and be right 90% of the time.  Who wants to bet Michigan State isn't fooled.
• Taylor Lewan, you got lucky on this one.  Savor it, because it isn't happening again.
• I hoped the offense would do a bit better than 3.6 ypc against Northwestern, but I will chalk that up to the Wildcats being a stout run defense team, and not our offense being ineffective running the ball with anyone but Denard in games against anyone but Minnesota.  We will know for sure next week.  Michigan State has a pretty damn good front seven.
• Speaking of pretty damn good front sevens, I liked the way the defensive line and linebackers got after Persa and the Northwestern running game.  It is important to keep in mind the injuries to Mike Trumpy and Dan Persa (who wasn't 100%), but I thought NU did a great job integrating Kain Colter into the game plan, and the defensive line did a great job disrupting things once it got its footing.
• Other than the speed option.  This is troubling, especially because the two toughest opponents left after Michigan State are all teams that can and will spread the field and look to exploit defensive breakdowns with quick option plays.  Persa picking apart the defense through the air was one thing, but the fact that the speed option picked up yards nearly every time*.  Also, the tackling on the speed option looked 2010-esque.  Even Kovacs whiffed on one tackle, leading to a touchdown.  By far the worst aspect of the defense all day.  This same rant could be used to bemoan being bubble screened to death, but Mattison did a good job covering the slot in the second half and slowing that down.
• Other than that missed tackle, Kovacs had another good day, and Thomas Gordon was good as well, especially on his strip and fumble recovery.  Two good safeties?  Something about that just doesn't seem fair.  I didn't know teams could do that.
• Blake Countess.  Yeah, I know he got beat by a step on the long pass in the second quarter, but other than that he looks very solid out there.  I am excited to see how this develops.
• Big Will Campbell also had a nice sack late.  I haven't watched the entire game replay yet to try and pinpoint his contribution (trying to play the 5GB torrent I downloaded was pretty much akin to pouring molasses on my two-year-old laptop) but rumblings from around the blogosphere are positive.  (Insert burned red shirt rant)
• It was nice to see the defense as a whole step up so much in the second half after allowing 24 points and looking almost completely helpless in the first half.
• One last note: 14/17 on third down.  I was shocked when I read that stat on Sunday.  It really puts Denard's interceptions into perspective.  If he wasn't stopping the offense, nothing else was on Saturday.  One of the best third down percentages I can remember against a team with a pulse.

*(The one time it didn't: fourth and one.  However, this was a speed option run to the short side of the field with a visibly slowed Dan Persa instead of Kain Colter.  The Michigan defense blew the play up, but the play call did not put NU in a position to succeed.)

-

Last week I said we couldn't learn anything at all from the Minnesota game.  This week I'm still not sure what we can take away specifically about the offense or defense.

However, the one thing I did learn is that it will be hard to count this team out with all the play makers on it.  Now that there is a coaching staff that's adjustments are more than switching stuffed animals at halftime, this team can finally start growing into something better week by week.

I'll probably still be a nervous wreck, though.

And Nobody Learned Anything At All That Day

(I'm back*.)

My junior year of college my younger sister decided to visit me for a football game.  She was a senior in high school and was just starting to get her mind around the big transition that was looming as she prepared to go off to college in the fall     a transition that she had witnessed me making from afar.  While we were always close when we were younger, we had drifted apart in the years since I had left home, and our time spent together became limited to those few weekends I went home because of other plans but just happened to be around the house Saturday afternoon for a little while.

The game we settled on for her visit was Minnesota     partly because tickets would be easy to come by and partly because it looked like a win in a season that wasn't exactly following my best case scenario.  That Friday night before the game we went to a party at a my friends' house, and I, as I was wont to do in those days, partied a little too hard.  She was still in her straight-laced days of no booze and dragged my ass home after I had drank all the booze.  She wasn't impressed.

The next day we woke up and I started in on the normal Saturday routine.  I made breakfast with College Gameday playing in the background, started drinking beer and getting nervous about the game, then took her to hit up a couple tailgates with friends.

The game, as you can most likely remember, couldn't have gone much worse.  After starting MSU's Annual October Descent into Madness the week before, Minnesota just wouldn't die.  After jumping out to an early lead Minnesota clawed back and tied the score at 20 going into the fourth.  By the time this happened:



...my day was pretty much ruined.

As we trudged back to my house down Hoover street among the throngs of silent and discontent fans, I don't think I said much of anything outside of muttering a few of the standard Late-Era Lloyd Carr complaints under my breath.

The most vivid memory I have of that day is laying down in my bed, feeling sick to my stomach from the gut punch that followed a morning of greasy food and beer.

We didn't do anything that night.  Just stayed in and watched football on TV, me and my sister in that old house on White street.  Just like when we were kids.

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That is the only Minnesota game of my life that I really remember outside of 2008.  I listened to the 2003 comeback in the Metrodome from a car radio on my way home from watching my old high school team get their asses handed to them by the best team in our conference.  What other year was Minnesota even relevant?  Had they not taken the Jug on that fall day in 2005, it would still be in the same spot it had been since 1986: right where it belonged, in Schembechler Hall.

In a way I'm almost glad that the game happened.  Not because I like losing to Minnesota en route to 7-5 in what was to that point the MOST DISAPPOINTING SEASON OF MY LIFE (hah, if I only knew...).  Character building experiences are for chumps.  No, that game reminded me just how much it meant to beat Minnesota, and keep the Brown Jug.  People can write that the Brown Jug is meaningless now, but I know better.  Just because Minnesota has been bad for a long time, just because the one year the Gophers were favored turned into an epic choke job at the hands of Nick Sheridan doesn't change that pain in my stomach October 8th.  I didn't want to give up the Jug.  It was a matter of pride.

That game helped me realize that.  It also brought me closer to my sister.  That next summer we took a road trip camping in upstate New York.  Six days of intense one on one time before she went off to college at Pittsburgh that fall.  We may not talk a lot these days, but those are the kind of memories that hold us together.

Two weeks ago she got married, and it was my honor to preside over the service**.

I may not keep in touch with my sister much these days, but deep down she means the world to me, even if I take it for granted that she will always be there when I want her to.

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As for Saturday's game, I don't know what to say that hasn't already been said in regard to every natural disaster in the past ten years.  What Minnesota did on Saturday in no way resembled Big Ten football, and by the time it ended I had lost all interest.  You can only rubberneck at a car accident for so long before reality sets in.

This game was in all honesty little more than a scrimmage.  Bullets anyway:

• Even though it wasn't a very competitive game, it is nice to see Denard gain a little confidence in the passing game.  Those passes don't complete themselves, even if there is no discernible defense in the way.  I will take 11 straight completions any day of the week, and that pass to Hopkins (HOPKINS!) was as pretty a throw as I've seen from Denard all year.  More of this please.
• Denard running against Minnesota's defense reminds me of being a kid when that one athletic kid a couple years older than everyone comes in and just quietly dominates all game before walking off and leaving everyone slack-jawed asking what the hell just happened.  Some of the cuts he made and creases he hit looked too easy.
• Fitz Toussaint is quietly becoming one of my favorite players on the offense.  While the competition hasn't been there, he seems to be gaining confidence and making the subtle kinds of moves that most running backs aren't able to pull off.  Not to mention the fact that he never stopped running as hard as he could until he was pulled all the way down to the ground.  A couple times I thought he was going to run right out of his jersey as some Minnesota player clung to it for dear life.  I hope this bodes well for the future.
• I'm not sure what to think of the diamond formation Borges pulled out.  Are you trying to get in Northwestern's head?  Is this something we might see a lot of?  The possibilities are endless, and I guess I'd take this over I-form, but let's no go nuts, ok?
• Helmet Numbers:  I'm a fan.  I like that the team liked the idea, and it is the kind of subtle change to the uni's that I can support.  I also second Brian's idea:  if they lose, the numbers are gone.
• Hemingway had a couple catches, and it was nice to see him after he had been quiet the last couple weeks.
• Vincent Smith as the second halfback option is seeming better and better all the time.  He isn't going to be a 100 ypg back, but he does enough of the little things that he is valuable to have on the field 20+ times a game.  Just no more passes please?  That was an arm punt if I've ever seen one.
• I don't have too much to say about the defense other than: bravo.  I don't care who you play, if you shut them down that thoroughly you are doing a good job.  Unfortunately this doesn't really mean anything for the future I fear.  I am excited to see how our D does against Northwestern and MSU     both good teams with talented skill position players but weaknesses that are ripe to be exploited.
• I didn't realize the first time through that Countess was the one who forced that fumble in the flat.  Excitement level growing...
• Koger's stiff arm: damn.
• Devin Gardner played well in his limited time.  Bodes well for the future that he looks comfortable in the offense and athletic enough to make plays out of nothing.
• Still not sure what to think about Thomas Rawls.  I'd like to jump on the hype train, but I just don't see him being anything more than a poor man's Brandon Minor.  Will I take 80% of a healthy Brandon Minor over the real thing that only plays half the time?  Oh yeah.Christmas came early for 
• Courtney Avery.  That is the easiest defensive touchdown of your life kid.

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What does any of this mean for next week?  Nothing.  It was painfully obvious once both teams got a few snaps that it was only a matter of "how badly will Michigan beat Minnesota".

Thankfully it looks like Northwestern may be vulnerable.

1. Dan Persa:  Persa was back last week, and while he threw four touchdown passes, he only passed for 120 yards on just 14 attempts.  Only two of the scoring drives were long (80 and 69 yards) while Northwestern has six drives go for less than ten yards and five go between 30 and 40.  If Michigan can take care of the ball and stay solid on special teams it could be hard for Northwestern to move the ball 60+ yards to score.  I want to see Michigan lay the hammer down on defense if only so I have a little more confidence going into the MSU game.
2. What Rush Defense Shows Up?  Northwestern held Boston College to 102 yards in the first game in what looked like a sea change for the beleagured Wildcat front seven after a poor 2010 playing the run.  Then BC went out and lost to the world, Northwestern gave up 381 yards on the ground to Army, and Illinois couldn't get much more than two yards per carry and...well, I don't know.  Eastern Illinois is a terrible rushing team in FCS and it gained 5.0 ypc against NU.  What the hell Pat, make up your mind.  If Northwestern shuts down Michigan like it did Illinois, Michigan won't have much chance in this one.  I don't see that happening.  Northwestern got a bye week before the Illinois game and I have a feeling Fitzgerald spent the whole time teaching his team how to shut down Illinois on the ground.  Should have spent some time on pass defense.
3. Nathan Scheelhaase, pocket passer?  It certainly looks that way from the stat sheet: 21/32, 391 yds, 3/1 td/int, with only 35 yards rushing on less than two yards per carry.  Scheelhaase has thrown the ball better this year     almost 70% comp     but he still isn't the kind of guy you peg for 391 yards against a good pass defense.  Which means this may not be a good pass defense.  Eighty-eighth in pass eff. defense and 81st in pass yardage defense don't paint a rosy picture.  Especially when one of the teams you played was Army.

Of course this is the first away game, and it is a night game, so that is an advantage for Northwestern.  Although if half the stadium isn't wearing maize and blue then the Chicago alumni have failed miserably.

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If you want to read me elsewhere I just posted my weekly Big Ten Power Rankings on Bleacher Report.  You know how you beat the man when he tells you to do a slideshow?  Make the damn thing 5000 words long.  I also wrote two reaction pieces in the wake of the OSU vs. MSU game.  They focus heavily on just how awful Ohio State is.  Read them for nothing else than the juicy schadenfreude in the comment section.

Ah, Buckeye fans, your tears sustain men.

Until next time (whenever that is).

Go Blue.

*(After announcing the return of the blog I quickly wrote one post.....then went AWOL for like three weeks.  I'm sorry.  In my defense:  1. I had to drive home to Michigan for my little sister's wedding up north without TV or internet that forced me to watch the EMU game on a grainy, 20-year-old projection tv in a bar owned by quite possibly the oldest people in the world.  2. The life of a part time employee is fraught with terrible hours.  Between my other job and writing for Bleacher Report, I just haven't had time to write much on Michigan football.  3. The last three games haven't been all that interesting.  I promise more regular content from here on out.  You don't believe me, and probably for good reason.)

**(I was ordained in some church online that I cannot to this day give you the name of.  They send me emails that I mark as spam.  I am not available to do your wedding unless you pay handsomely and don't care about how the service turns out.  Or if you don't care that I do it half drunk     I've got bad nerves and all.)

Don't Let the Lights Get In Your Eyes

In the hours after the game Saturday night I wandered around my house with a stupid grin on my face, half drunk and not really sure what to think.

My roommates threw a birthday party for one of our friends that evening during the game.  My contact with the party consisted of disgruntled trips to the keg during timeouts in which I would try to avoid any and all contact with others, and a few occasions where one or more of my friends would come into my room and check on me.  It is good to know that my mental state during Michigan games is so out of whack that those closest to me feel the need to monitor my well being.

Yet as I walked around after the game the party had largely died down to a few smaller groups of people talking or half playing some drinking game.  The couches were taken up by a few people who went too hard too fast, and the keg was still circled by those that had yet to squeeze all they could from it.

People casually asked me about the game.  My answer was always the same: a rush of emotions would ride in on the first words and pretty soon I was just spewing up an unintelligible series of exasperated praises and foreboding signs of impending doom.

"Denard was soooo bad in the beginning, but that fourth quarter, oh man, and those fades, they were just, how did he throw that with that guy there?"

"Ugh, the defense.  Got pushed around all night, no pressure.  But the turnovers.  And, yeah, Floyd and Wood did whatever they wanted.  But the turnovers!"

"Hemingway.  HEMINGWAY!"

It is a day and a half later and I still don't feel any different when I think about the game.  I watched the highlights a few times Saturday night, then a few times Sunday night as well.  It still doesn't feel real.  Bullets?

• It has been interesting to see the internet reaction on the subject of Denard's first three quarters.  I will admit that I haven't been the most consistent in my thinking.  During the game it was along the lines of, "Oh noes, Gardner?  Too soon?" but after the game it was simply standard fare doom and gloom about how the offense is never going to do anything again and the fourth quarter was an anomaly that only proves that God really doesn't like Notre Dame that much      or if she does, it is in a very Job-like way where dragging an entire fan base through the equivalent of football hell is supposed to be an endearing test of character.  (Yes, Notre Dame fans, God is a woman, and she wants to see how much you love her.  How much do you love her?)  As it stands now I think the offense is just very limited.  If teams stack the box and force Denard to pass, things will be shaky.  Everyone knows he is capable of making plays down field with his arm; he has made plenty of them over the past year.  The problem is that everyone knows he isn't yet capable of making those plays consistently.  Now, if he makes a good read and pass somewhere around two-thirds of the time or more (like the 4th quarter) this offense can still be very good. If he can't even do it a tenth of the time (like the first three quarters) the offense is going to end up just north of 2008 depths.  Obviously the answer lies somewhere in between.  Just where lies in the hands of Al Borges, who is going to have to adjust his game plan based on what he saw.  No more waggles out of I-Form or straight dive plays out of two back sets.  More zone-read and Denard head fakes.  This offense needs to be more shotgun based, and needs to at least keep the option of Denard running viable on every play so that defenses have to account for more possible outcomes and play tenative.  
• However, the problem of the offense doesn't just fall on the shoulders of Borges.  Denard was just plain bad at throwing the ball for the majority of the game.  He completed only four passes over the first three quarters, of those there were:  1. A five yard pass to Smith on a 3rd and 7 that was obviously Mike DeBord hacking in to the offenses' headset for one more disappointing third down playcall; 2. The Hemingway touchdown that was all Hemingway going up to get an under thrown fade; 3. An 11 yard pass to Kevin Koger over the middle on a good move to step forward out of the collapsing pocket; 4. The 77 yard crossing route that Robinson threw with his feet wrapped up by a ND defender.  For the record that is one meaningless check down, one unspectacular pass turned into a spectacular touchdown by the receiver, a savvy pass to Koger to get a third down conversion, and a nine out of ten difficulty throw to Hemingway (this is a ten out of ten).  Four for 15 in the first three quarters, and of those throws, only two were really properly placed.  The other eleven passes were incomplete or intercepted.  Robinson looked shaky with ball placement in week one, and sure enough when the pass defense was ratcheted up a notch this week he found it even harder to hit receivers in ever tightening windows.  If he can't settle down over the next month and improve his accuracy this offense is going to be much too easy to stop.
• There is still no running back.  I didn't know Toussaint was injured for the game (I was constantly talking to no one in particular as I sat by myself asking, "where the hell is Fitz?"  It would have been nice to see if he could have found any success where the other backs failed.  After last year and his performance last weekend, I am about ready to close the book on Stephen Hopkins as a viable #1 running back.  He can be a very good blocker, and will have some use as a big back if he controls his fumble problem, but otherwise the offense needs to be put in someone else's hands.  Is the answer Shaw?  Who knows.  He certainly didn't look very good on his two carries.  Unfortunately, it seems clear that no matter how much Borges and Hoke want it the other way, Denard is still our only effective running back and will need to be deployed accordingly.  More shotgun please.
• The offensive line looked overwhelmed at first glance.  I don't know how they will grade out upon closer inspection, but there weren't many holes to run through.  Robinson had a few big runs, but the backs were completely bottled up.  Denard did have plenty of time to throw, but I think that was part of Notre Dame's strategy (Pressure with four and make him throw over top of linebackers.  It worked).  This week's UFR will be an interesting read.  I can't imagine our O-line does anything more than break even.
• The lone bright spot outside of "Denard-fourth-quarter-whaaaaa-mode"?  The receivers.  Hemingway was spectacular on all three of his catches, and he has clearly staked claim as the big play receiver on this team.  Also, while I was ready to see Jeremy Gallon's role increase this year, I did not imagine it would be so pronounced.  The touchdown that he caught was on a great adjustment by him to get back to the ball before the defender could react, and getting free on the final drive to run the Wolverines into scoring position was arguably the play of the game as Michigan has no chance of going for the win if it doesn't get into the red zone there and set up a reasonable throw to the end zone.  Also, nice to see Roundtree not need to get warmed up for the game winner.  For a player with a history of drops it is nice to see him make such a great catch in a big moment.
• The defensive line was the most disappointing part of the defense for me.  Rees never really saw pressure, and Notre Dame never really had trouble picking up yards on the ground.  There were a few key TFL's and stuffs on short run plays, but that infuriating draw play that Wood ran six or eight times for almost ten yards a pop was troubling to see.  Mike Martin and RVB have been solid so far, but they need to be transcendent to make up for the help they aren't getting.  Craig Roh is all but absent when he needs to be a game changer off the weak side edge, and the walk-on duo of Heininger and Brink has been barely noticeable .  This unit really needs to come together in the next three weeks.  It was nice to see BWC make a couple big plays.  Any contribution he makes at this point will help immensely with the lack of quality depth on the line.
• The linebackers seemed to be effective, but a second glance at that should help me better make up my mind.  It is nice to see Brandin Hawthorne step up at WLB.  It would be nice to finally find a permanent starter for the position.
• Together, the front seven did stuff Notre Dame on three third-and-short rushing attempts late in the game.  The defense may bleed yards, but these are the kind of clutch plays that make up for it.
• I'm not sure what to think of the way the secondary played.  Michael Floyd got half ND's yards, but no touchdowns.  JT Floyd got beat a couple times, but probably made a good decision latching on to Floyd on what would have almost surely been a TD, and, hey, an INT for your troubles.  Kovacs is Kovacs, and that has lost all pejorative "walk-on-ish" connotation and just means: Kovacs is good at what he does and we should want more of it.  Avery is still just an undersized sophomore, and sometimes plays like it.  Woolfolk needs to stay healthy already.
• Special Teams = no crippling mistakes = A+.
• I shouldn't shortchange the special teams just to be snarky about the last two years.  Matt Wile did a very admirable job filling in on punting duties.  The coverage teams made a few good plays to drop Irish returners for a loss.  Gallon had a big punt return in the fourth quarter to set up the first go-ahead touchdown.  And last but not least: we didn't miss a single extra point.  It's the little things, everybody.

Overall, Michigan's performance was a perplexing mix of incredible plays pulled from a grab bag of defensive breakdowns and poor offensive execution, that is hard to put into perspective given the obvious question: how good is Notre Dame anyway and how much did the team beat itself?

The answer to the first question, I think, is simple.  This Irish team is long on talent and coaching, short on execution.  The Irish have put up two straight 500 yard games on play averages of around five yards per rush and eight per pass.  Michael Floyd is obviously a huge load at receiver, and so far Rees has shown the ability to air it out to receivers for touchdowns (five).  Cierre Wood has two 100 yard games so far and two touchdowns, and the offensive line is big and experienced.  But these big yardage totals don't amount to much because turnovers halted promising drives and set both Irish opponents up for scores.

Is this a top-10 offense?  No, but it is capable of moving the ball on most defenses with the weapons it has, and should be able to get this team to eight-ish wins if it's propensity for turning the ball over is curbed to reasonable levels.

The defense is much trickier to figure out.  It stoned USF, but USF isn't a good offensive that was protecting a huge lead for a big portion of the game, and once the Irish made it close USF was able to quickly score again to re-extend the lead.  Then the Irish defense shut down the Michigan offense for three quarters only to switch to full on panic made and give up four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  Real answers come next week when Notre Dame faces an offense that won't spend three quarters self-immolating before waking up and jamming a games worth of offensive execution into 17 minutes of game time.  The Spartans are deep and balanced at the skill positions and should be a should present quite a challenge to the Irish defense.

So did the Irish beat themselves?  The defensive collapse didn't help much, but some of that credit goes to the Herculean effort of Denard Robinson to get his team back in the game after a sloppy first three quarters. The bigger Irish implosion was once again turnovers.  Consider:

• Second Quarter: Rees intercepted after zoning in on Michael Floyd and losing track of Kovacs dropping into a zone beneath Floyd.  Two plays later Hemingway proclaims "your touchdowns are now touchdowns," and the Wolverines get their first score.
• Second Quarter: Rees intercepted on the goal line, again locking on to Floyd and trying to squeeze the ball in between three defenders, one of whom picks it off.  Deprives ND of a back breaking 24-7 lead in the first half.
• Fourth Quarter: Rees fumble on Michigan seven yard line.  The ball slipped out of his hand while he was preparing to throw.  Michigan doesn't turn this into points, but the Irish give up at least three points and probably seven.

Of the three Irish turnovers listed (there were five in the game) one of them set up a Wolverine touchdown and two removed a chance in or near the red zone      a three score swing away from the Irish.  More frustrating for Irish fans is that these were not great plays by the defense.  Rees' three turnovers are two interceptions where he zoned in on Michael Floyd and didn't notice an underneath defender, and a fluky fumble during a throw in the red zone.  These are all things that can and will improve as Rees gains confidence.  If the Irish are still turning the ball over like this in week eight then either Lane Kiffin has a voodoo doll of Tommy Rees that he had made after last year's ND/USC game, or God really does want to know how much Irish fans love her.

It isn't that I am ignoring Denard Robinson's fourth quarter performance in this rambling mess of a reaction piece, its just that I don't know where to start, and for someone trying to analyse and classify a game, this is a scary juncture.  I just don't know, man.

Starting at 2:13 remaining in the third quarter Robinson threw 11 passes in the fourth quarter for 279 yards and three touchdowns (while scoring a rushing touchdown after a Hopkins fumble):

1. Seventy-seven yard crossing route to Junior Hemingway while he, Robinson, was being pulled to the ground by a Notre Dame lineman.
2. Fifteen yard swing pass to John McColgan on second and 15 following a sack the play before.
3. Fourteen yard fade to Jeremy Gallon for the first touchdown.
4. Forty-five yard jump ball to Junior Hemingway when the offense was backed up to second and nine at its own ten yard line.
5. End zone interception.
6. Incomplete pass.
7. Twenty-seven yard corner route to Kelvin Grady.
8. Twenty-one yard screen pass to Vincent Smith for the go ahead touchdown with 1:12 left on the clock.
9. Incomplete pass.
10. Sixty-four yard pass to Gallon on a wheel route to set up first and ten at the Notre Dame 16 yard line with eight seconds left on the clock.
11. Sixteen yard fade to Roy Roundtree for the winning touchdown with two seconds left in the game.

Denard Robinson led eight meaningful drives before the final two minutes of the third quarter.  Five ended in punts, two ended in interceptions, and one ended in the only touchdown of the first three quarters.  Not one drive lasted longer than four plays.  

Beginning just before the fourth quarter, Robinson led five drives before the end of the game.  Four ended in touchdowns scored by Robinson, two went for over 80 yards, and the other two went for over 40.  The longest drive was five plays.

And this is where I fall short when trying to explain just what Denard Robinson did on Saturday, because the difference between the first eight drives and the last five is more wide and unexplainable than anything I have ever seen from any football player in my lifetime.  I list the numbers for scale and perspective, but they are so out of whack with anything I am used to that it is jarring.

Fifty-nine yards through three quarters, 279 yards in the fourth quarter.

Two interceptions and one touchdown through three quarters, three touchdowns and an interception in the fourth quarter.

The story of Denard Robinson's fourth quarter against Notre Dame is the story of two quarterbacks that we very likely won't see again this season.  Two samples taken from opposite ends of the dilithium spectrum.  One ineffective and pinned under an offense that asks too much of his lesser talents while minimizing the things he does best, the other elusive and explosive and capable of creating a big play out of thin air every time he touches the ball.  This was a quarterback struggling mightily and then in a snap controlling a game like a puppeteer.  We were treated to the very highs and lows of the Denard Robinson experience at Michigan.  There was plenty of freshman Denard who struggled to finding receivers, who looked wore down and out manned by a defense that was clearly focused on containing him in the pocket, and missed a number of throws.  And just when all hope seemed to be lost, when Robinson was just about to be wrapped up for a sack in the backfield that would have pinned the Wolverines inside their ten yard line on second and long      effectively ending any real hope of a comeback given how the game had went up to that point      out stepped the action hero to star in the less plausible sequel to last fall's blockbuster.  The odds were greater, the enemy tougher, and there was even a sidekick this time.  The rest may as well have been scored by John Williams      it certainly felt cinematic.

Last year after the Notre Dame game I compared Denard to Barry Sanders.  I talked about how much joy there was in watching a player unlike any other that had ever suited up for Michigan in the past.  Seeing a young kid who busted his ass to win the starting quarterback job, and then played the position so well that it left everyone slack-jawed at whatever in the hell just happened.  After years of being ground down by sports, suspicious and cynical about athletes, coaches, and leagues, Denard Robinson gave me that little bit of perspective to remember why I loved the game in the first place   It showed through every time he grinned like a slightly embarrassed kid trying to play it cool but failing while in front of the press or laughed with teammates on the sideline.  He loves the game of football.  When you spend a lot of free time obsessing over the minutia of college football that is wholly out of your control and absorbing abuse from rivals on message boards, something as small and genuine as a guy smiling really wide because he is just so happy in the moment can go a long way toward helping you understand that this thing we cheer for is in a way both more and less serious than we believe it to be.

Thus we are back to the place where I look for answers.  Where Denard's fourth quarter against Notre Dame hangs in the air out of my grasp      just a kid playing the game that he loves      and I reach for it to try and grab on tight and see where it will lead in the future.

As I walked around my house after the game Saturday night, it kept coming back to me: that actually happened.  I didn't dream it or make it up.  The Michigan Wolverines had actually won a game against Notre Dame from a 17 point fourth quarter deficit.  I walked from room to room trying to find anyone who was still there and in some sort of shape to have the kind of party that I had missed earlier in the night while I sat nervously in a closed bedroom shouting at a TV and slamming keg beer during commercial breaks.  Everyone was either passed out or gone home, what remained were drunken heads dragging tired and inebriated bodies to chairs and beds and an deep sleep.

I ended up back in my room, alone, watching highlights of the game, all the while laughing and doing double takes trying to figure out what just happened.  Trying to come up with a theory of just what to expect from Robinson the rest of this season.  What quarterback shows up next week?  For the MSU game?  For OSU?  How does the offense change to fit Robinson in the coming weeks?  Does the team adapt?  These are important questions that I felt needed to be answered.

I sit here two days later, and it still isn't clear  Won't ever be.  

One thing is, however: Denard Robinson just about lost the game.  Then he went out and won it.  This year I understand just what he is capable of      I have seen it with my own eyes        

Absolutely anything.

On Saturday, we got everything we needed.  The rest we will have to wait.

Incomplete Thoughts From an Incomplete Game

Good to have you back, TWolf. (Melanie Maxwell I AnnArbor.com)

Had I known the game itself wasn't going to make it to the fourth quarter I might have had a little more of a sense of urgency in the hours before the game.

Instead of tuning in for the beginning of the game I spent most of the first quarter driving to a friends house where I was going to spend the next eight plus hours stuffing my face with junk food followed by cheap domestic beer.  I was running late because this was the first Saturday in months that I decided to actually accomplish something in the morning instead of laying around like a worthless pile of skin, and I was relocating because I was being exiled from my house due to a huge half-marathon that was shutting down all the roads in my neighborhood the next day, thus interfering with my commute to work Sunday morning.

I missed Western Michigan's entire first drive (probably for the best) and walked in just in time to see the Wolverines attempt a fourth and short to keep the long drive alive in the end of the first quarter.  From there the game was all over the place with weather delays, technical difficulties, and eventually, an early and somewhat anticlimactic end.  After re-watching the game this morning     courtesy of the indescribably awesome Boys n da Pahokee on the mgoboard     this is what I saw:

And We're Back...

A year after starting this little blog, and ten months since all but abandoning the thing to die a lonely death, I'm back.

At least in a sense.

Last year in October I was fortunate enough to get an offer to start contributing to Maize n' Brew.  While this opportunity provided me with a lot more exposure than Dreaded Judgement ever did, it also sucked all my focus on producing content away from DJ -- not my original intention when I took the opportunity.

I did love my time writing for MnB, and I owe many thanks to Dave for giving me the call up as well as giving me a great deal of professional and personal advice over the past year.  If you don't read MnB regularly I can't urge you enough to start.

Unfortunately, my time at MnB has come to an end.  This August I was provided with another opportunity to write; this time for compensation.  It seems that the higher ups at Bleacher Report are tired of being the laughingstock of the online sports community, and in an effort to counteract this reputation -- one which for the most part has been justly deserved in the past -- B/R has hired not only five well respected writers, but also provided smaller paid opportunities to content producers who will become featured contributors on the site.

I was approached by the College Football editor to become B/R's featured Big Ten football contributor.  More importantly they offered to pay me a monthly salary.

I will admit that I haven't been the biggest fan of B/R in the past.  The old incarnation that was fueled by poorly edited everymen ranting about their teams under a pile of elementary grammar and logic errors was enough to steer me away from the site entirely and join with the rest of the blogging illuminati in bashing B/R at every turn.

Now the tables have turned and I am too smart to bite the hand that feeds me.

I know that my cash induced change of heart won't apply to all of you, and I understand that.  B/R has done a good job burning a lot of bridges in the past, and must now earn respect back the hard way.  Hopefully hiring guys like me will start to do that.

I only hope that those of you who have enjoyed my writing in the past will continue to follow my writing from here on out -- despite the name in the header.  I am still the same writer I have always been, and I take too much pride in my work to let myself be drug down into the fray that still exists across some of the B/R spectrum.  I will have to do a couple slideshows a week -- it is literally in the job description -- but rest assured that if you have to click through ten slides I will make sure there is enough information and insight to make it worth your time.

If you want to follow my work on B/R without searching the site, please follow my twitter account (@zach_travis) where I will post links to most of my work.  Also, here is a link to my profile page on B/R



One added bonus about moving to B/R is that I can now move back here to Dreaded Judgement for all my Michigan musings.  Now, content won't be as consistent as when I started the site last fall.  Outside of producing six articles a week for B/R, I am still working full-time (because blogging doesn't pay the bills by itself).  I will mostly try to get post game reaction pieces up and maybe some in depth analysis -- all of which isn't really appropriate for mass consumption but is appreciated by those of you hardcore enough to seek out as much Michigan coverage as you can on the internet.  I am one of you, and I am happy to oblige with the obsessions and minutia that you crave.

If you have any questions for me or suggestions for the site, feel free to contact me at zwtravis@gmail.com or get at me on twitter.

Thanks for all the support in the past, and here's hoping for a great future for both Michigan football and this site.